January 6, 2023

Sunk Cost

The Reds released Mike Moustakas while still owing him $22 million:

The three-time All-Star was drafted second overall by Kansas City in 2007 and signed a $64 million, four-year contract with Cincinnati in December 2019. He is a .247 career hitter with 203 homers and 635 RBIs in 12 major league seasons with the Royals, Brewers and Reds.

ESPN.com

At the time, it was a perfectly reasonable contract. Moustakas produced 7.2 fWAR over the three previous seasons, and the money meant that the Reds expected him to produce about the same over the next four seasons. Instead, he produced -0.5 fWAR in the first three years of the contract.

For some reason, Moustakas went from a low strikeout player with power to a high K player without power. He did suffer a number of injuries the last two seasons. This is the danger of signing someone to a long-term deal in his 30s. A player can do downhill quickly. It’s good to see the Reds realize that they are better off with that particular player off the roster. The sunk cost is there, and with luck they can find a youngster at league minimum who will at least post a positive WAR and play nearly every day.

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