January 13, 2023

March of the Robots

Major League Baseball continues to experiment in the minor leagues with new technology. The 2023 season brings automatic ball/strike calling to AAA:

The Automatic Balls and Strikes system, commonly referred to as ABS, will be deployed in two different ways. Half of the Class AAA games will be played with all of the calls determined by an electronic strike zone, and the other half will be played with an ABS challenge system similar to that used in professional tennis.

Each team will be allowed three challenges per game, with teams retaining challenges in cases when they are proved correct. MLB’s intention is to use the data and feedback from both systems, over the full slate of games, to inform future choices.

As of now, MLB has no firm date to implement its Automatic Balls and Strikes system in the big leagues. But in recent seasons, the robotic umpire has been used increasingly in the minor leagues.

ESPN.com

I like the idea of moving this up to the high minors. There are plenty of players on the 40-man roster at this level, meaning players with MLB experience will see the technology first hand. AAA games tend to be well attended, so there should be good fan-feedback as well.

Over the years, however, I’ve come to appreciate the way umpires, batters, and pitchers used to be able to reconfigure the strike zone to the era through positive and negative feedback. Changes in the structure of the strike zone followed changes that already took place in the game, not the other way around. In the 1990s, batters no longer wanted to swing at a high pitch. Pitchers wanted the edges of the plate. So umpires lowered the top of the strike zone and expanded the width of calls over the plate. I believe the tracking technology of the last twenty years hurt that natural adjustment.

So if the AI system ever gets to the major leagues, I hope there is some learning built into it:

  • Where on the edges of the zone do batters swing the most? That should give the system an better idea of where batters see the edges of the zone.
  • What pitches do batter disagree and agree on the call, especially ones that are known for having good eyes?
  • What pitches do pitchers disagree and agree on the call, especially ones with great control?

So if batters someday start chasing high pitches again, the robot can adjust the strike zone automatically.

I also think the robot would make implementing a progressive strike zone easier. That’s a rule that would start a plate appearance with a narrow zone (the entire ball has to be over the plate to be a called strike), and widen it with each strike. That would encourage swinging earlier in the count, possibly cutting down on strike outs and walks.

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