April 8, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

  • 0.275 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.269 — Tim Anderson batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.268 — Luis Robert batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.265 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.265 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.264 — Yonathan Daza batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.263 — Kris Bryant batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.263 — Nico Hoerner batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.262 — Taylor Ward batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.261 — Aaron Judge batting against Cole Irvin.
  • 0.261 — Luis Arraez batting against Kodai Senga.

Stephenson is off to a great start in 2023, hitting in all six games he played with a .364/.417/.455 slash line. Bryant is tied for the longest hit streak in the majors right now, eight games.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.269, 0.707 — Tim Anderson batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.268, 0.703 — Luis Robert batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.265, 0.698 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.261, 0.698 — Luis Arraez batting against Kodai Senga.
  • 0.275, 0.697 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.264, 0.688 — Yonathan Daza batting against Trevor Williams.
  • 0.256, 0.684 — Freddie Freeman batting against Zach Davies.
  • 0.254, 0.683 — Bo Bichette batting against Tyler Anderson.
  • 0.263, 0.680 — Nico Hoerner batting against Martin Perez.
  • 0.263, 0.678 — Kris Bryant batting against Trevor Williams.

Since the NN is more heavily weighted toward the three-year performance of the batters, Anderson comes out on top again. He is the consensus first pick with with his teammate Robert the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

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