Tom Tango presents caught stealing data based on the accuracy of the throw to second base. A good throw will get the base runner 62% of the time. I’m sure we’ll be seeing how leads, runner speed, pitch velocity, and catcher throw velocity change those numbers.
There was a great example in the O’s vs White Sox game yesterday (15 April). Jorge Mateo was caught stealing on an absolutely perfect throw by Yasmani Grandal (from his knees!). If the throw is literally anywhere else, Mateo is safe.