The Athletics beat the Braves 2-1 Tuesday night for Oakland’s second win in a row. The A’s walk off after three walks load the bases, then a fielder’s choice error allows the winning run to score. The Braves are getting a dose of reality here as the team with highest winning percentage in the NL loses two to the team with the lowest winning percentage in the majors.

With twelve wins in 57 tries, the highest winning percentage that contains 12 wins in a 95% confidence interval is .338. With that as the ceiling on their intrinsic winning percentage and .296 replacement level as the floor, the probability of the A’s finishing with no more than 40 wins ranges from .07 to .29. That would put them below the winning percentage of the 1962 Mets (.250).

Correction: Rays have the highest winning percentage in the Majors.