For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.331 — Ronald Acuna batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.325 — Luis Arraez batting against Quinn Priester.
- 0.321 — Michael Harris II batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.321 — Donovan Solano batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.309 — Ke’Bryan Hayes batting against Ryan Weathers.
- 0.306 — Jared Triolo batting against Ryan Weathers.
- 0.303 — Josh Naylor batting against Joey Wentz.
- 0.299 — Alex Kirilloff batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.298 — Kyle Farmer batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.297 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Ryan Weathers.
Arraez still has not played, so it looks like a good day to pick a couple of Braves.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.325, 0.764 — Luis Arraez batting against Quinn Priester.
- 0.331, 0.737 — Ronald Acuna batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.321, 0.731 — Michael Harris II batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.321, 0.715 — Donovan Solano batting against Ty Blach.
- 0.289, 0.713 — Harold Ramirez batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.279, 0.712 — Bo Bichette batting against Aaron Civale.
- 0.272, 0.711 — Freddie Freeman batting against Keaton Winn.
- 0.303, 0.707 — Josh Naylor batting against Joey Wentz.
- 0.285, 0.702 — Yandy Diaz batting against Yusei Kikuchi.
- 0.309, 0.697 — Ke’Bryan Hayes batting against Ryan Weathers.
The double down is Arraez-Acuna if Arraez plays, Acuna-Harris if Arraez can’t answer the bell.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!