Tom Tango compares the distributions of swing speeds for Luis Arraez and Ronald Acuna Jr. Arraez swings his bat much slower than Acuna, but for each they are most effective at the higher speed end of their distributions. As you might expect, Arraez makes more contact than Acuna, but Acuna’s power makes his high speed swings more valuable.
Tango:
That’s why you can’t just look at swing speed on its own: it really needs to be evaluated based on that batter’s swing distribution.
TangoTiger.com
This is also a very good example of how there are many ways in baseball to be successful. The consensus today seems to be that every hitter needs to be like Acuna. Therefore, one would think that some smart team might sign a bunch of Arraez like players cheaply and win. (See the Cardinals of the 1980s.) It could be, however, that those players are few and far between, since youngsters are taught to swing like a power hitter.
It’s not clear how we get to a better mix of Acunas and Arraezes. I think it would be a more interesting game if we did.
Where would I find more studies on this type of thing? Guys like Arraez, McNeil, Frazier, and a smattering of others have chosen the road less traveled (low K%, high contact%). I’m thinking also of a guy like Enrique Bradfield Jr. in the O’s system. His SSS in the minors has been on the high contact% extreme. I suspect it does have to bat speed/time in the zone but more to do with contact quality. EV isn’t the right measure. LA isn’t really either. But both may be an output of some sort.