January 14, 2024

Targeting Pitches

Tom Tango uses data on the position of the left wrist of catchers to infer how the backstops set targets for various pitches. This first post in a series deals with inside pitches, and the differences in targeting are small compared to the difference in ball placement up and down.

I could this being useful to broadcasters. It would be fairly easy to build a model for each catcher, or even each catcher/pitcher combination. Then, if an analyst says, “He wanted that pitch up!” it would more likely be true.

One could also build reports on how often pitchers hit the intended targets, which I suspect would be very useful in evaluating talent, both for the future, but in season and in game as well. Along with spin rates, FIP, and barrels, hitting the target could add to the valuation of free agents. Within a season, target deterioration could indicate an injury before it becomes serious. Within a game, target deterioration might be a better indication of when to lift a pitcher rather than third time through the order.

W. Edwards Deming would love that.

1 thought on “Targeting Pitches

  1. Drew

    There’s a lot of industrial engineering principles that could be applied (or likely already are) to Baseball! Deming would be proud

    ReplyReply

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