For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these high projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.316 — Luis Arraez batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.312 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.311 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.309 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Daulton Jefferies.
- 0.301 — Luis Rengifo batting against Kyle Harrison.
- 0.296 — Miguel Andujar batting against Chris Paddack.
- 0.295 — Jose Altuve batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.290 — Tommy Pham batting against Jordan Montgomery.
- 0.290 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.289 — Abraham Toro-Hernandez batting against Chris Paddack.
Note that the Athletics and Twins play a doubleheader Sunday to make up the game lost to rain on Saturday. Be careful which game you choose!
Kwan extended his hit streak to ten games on Saturday.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit today:
- 0.316, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Tylor Megill.
- 0.312, 0.729 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.309, 0.709 — Ezequiel Tovar batting against Daulton Jefferies.
- 0.295, 0.706 — Jose Altuve batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.311, 0.704 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Zach Eflin.
- 0.301, 0.703 — Luis Rengifo batting against Kyle Harrison.
- 0.277, 0.696 — Freddie Freeman batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.290, 0.695 — Mauricio Dubon batting against Kenta Maeda.
- 0.266, 0.692 — Harold Ramirez batting against Hurston Waldrep.
- 0.273, 0.691 — Amed Rosario batting against Hurston Waldrep.
The two systems stand in agreement on Arreaz and Kwan as the double down picks. Here is what the NN sees:
- 0.316, 0.7569 — Luis Arraez batting against Tylor Megill. Parameters: (0.206, 0.236, 0.305, 0.312, 0.215, 0.198)
- 0.312, 0.7287 — Steven Kwan batting against Jose Berrios. Parameters: (0.215, 0.229, 0.340, 0.267, 0.215, 0.214)
The first two parameters are pitcher hit averages allowed this season and since 2022. The third and fourth parameters are the same for the batter. Number five is the hit average of the majors this season, and the sixth parameter is the three-year hit average of the park. The parameter that gets the highest weight is number four, the batter four year hit average. While Kwan dominates in this season, it’s not enough to overcome the huge three-year average of Arraez. Note that going into the 1941 season, Joe DiMaggio owned a three-season hit average of .313.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!