For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.334 — Amed Rosario batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.333 — Luis Rengifo batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.329 — Luis Arraez batting against Josh Winckowski.
- 0.316 — Yandy Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.315 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.312 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.311 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.301 — Trea Turner batting against Yonny Chirinos.
- 0.296 — Freddy Fermin batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.295 — Logan O’Hoppe batting against Casey Mize.
Rosario fits the bill of someone who should rank high on these lists. He tends to produce a high BA with a relatively low OBP. Both his walk and strikeout rates are low, and he owns a high BABIP. On top of that, he is three for six against Corbin.
The NN produces this list of batter with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.329, 0.763 — Luis Arraez batting against Josh Winckowski.
- 0.334, 0.729 — Amed Rosario batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.333, 0.725 — Luis Rengifo batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.291, 0.721 — Steven Kwan batting against Seth Lugo.
- 0.301, 0.715 — Trea Turner batting against Yonny Chirinos.
- 0.315, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Allen.
- 0.316, 0.715 — Yandy Diaz batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.289, 0.712 — Jose Iglesias batting against Shawn Dubin.
- 0.311, 0.704 — William Contreras batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.312, 0.697 — Christian Yelich batting against Kyle Hendricks.
The lists are similar, with Kwan making the NN. Rosario stands as the consensus top pick, while Rengifo and Arraez tie for the double down pick. The weather is iffy in New England today, so keep an eye on the Padres playing in Boston if you decide to go with Arraez.
Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates extended his hit streak to 25 games on Saturday with a 1 for 5. The NN gives him a .652 probability of extending his streak. His hit average during the streak stands at an excellent .313. For the season, however, it’s only .250.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!