The Tigers beat the White Sox 9-4 on Sunday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .237. That is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.

They need to go no better than 9-22 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 131 games is .311. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.49. For replacement level of .296, the probability stands at 0.56. The odds now favor the White Sox falling below the mark of the Mets!

If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -6 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .360, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.27, or about 1 in 4.

Things are looking bleak for Chicago.