For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.320 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
- 0.314 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.300 — Yainer Diaz batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.290 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
- 0.290 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.286 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284 — Freddy Fermin batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.283 — William Contreras batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.282 — Donovan Solano batting against Mason Black.
Doubling down on Jacksons seems like a good deal as the two rookies project to the same hit average today. Chourio owns a nine-game hit streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.320, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
- 0.314, 0.732 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.300, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.294, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.290, 0.701 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
- 0.286, 0.695 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284, 0.693 — Freddy Fermin batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.265, 0.689 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Max Fried.
- 0.268, 0.689 — Jarren Duran batting against Davis Martin.
- 0.282, 0.688 — Donovan Solano batting against Mason Black.
- 0.247, 0.688 — Jose Iglesias batting against Fernando Cruz.
I was watching the Rockies broadcast last night, and they discussed the number of sluggers hitting for high batting averages. In was in the context of Marcel Ozuna batting, but they brought up Alvarez, Guerrero, and Aaron Judge. They did not put Witt in the same category, and yet Witt ranks second in the AL in extra-base hits, total bases, and slugging percentage.
The two systems agree on the top three batters, with Arraez and Witt the unanimous double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!