For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.312 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.306 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.304 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.302 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.301 — Miguel Rojas batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.301 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.292 — Jarren Duran batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.290 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.287 — Yandy Diaz batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.287 — Cody Bellinger batting against Walker Buehler.
It looks like a good night for the Dodgers against Hendricks. Betts hit .309/.368/.596 since his return. The high BA with a relatively low OBP means he collected hits in 80% of his games since returning. Betts currently owns an eight game hit streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.304, 0.727 — Jose Iglesias batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.301, 0.710 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.280, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Carlos Rodon.
- 0.306, 0.707 — Freddie Freeman batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.312, 0.706 — Mookie Betts batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.292, 0.700 — Jarren Duran batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.287, 0.697 — Yandy Diaz batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.285, 0.693 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Cade Povich.
- 0.302, 0.693 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.275, 0.687 — Jose Miranda batting against Reid Detmers.
- 0.281, 0.687 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Nick Martinez.
The two systems agree to a large extend on the players, but not the order. Iglesias comes out as the consensus top pick, with Betts and Freeman tied for second. Freeman is 9 for 14 with four walks and two strikeouts against Hendricks. Betts is three for nine with a walk and a K.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!