For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.284 — Trea Turner batting against Nate Pearson.
- 0.276 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.275 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.273 — Alec Bohm batting against Nate Pearson.
- 0.272 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.271 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.269 — Connor Wong batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.263 — Victor Robles batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.259 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.259 — Bryce Harper batting against Nate Pearson.
The final scheduled Monday of the season features just four games. Tuner is on a bit of a hot streak hitting .343 with a .361 OBP and just seven K in is last eight games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.284, 0.698 — Trea Turner batting against Nate Pearson.
- 0.257, 0.697 — Yainer Diaz batting against Bryce Miller.
- 0.271, 0.692 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.276, 0.686 — Masataka Yoshida batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.275, 0.683 — Jarren Duran batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.273, 0.682 — Alec Bohm batting against Nate Pearson.
- 0.246, 0.680 — Jose Altuve batting against Bryce Miller.
- 0.272, 0.671 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.259, 0.669 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.263, 0.669 — Victor Robles batting against Hunter Brown.
Both system agree on Turner, but the probability of anyone getting a hit today is low. Yoshida stands as the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!