The White Sox sweep the Angels with a 7-0 win on Thursday, finishing out their final home stand with a rare three-game win streak. Chicago remains tied with the 1962 Mets for the most losses in one season in the modern era. Chicago can set the loss record without setting the percentage record. The Mets only played 160 games in 1962 and finished with a .250 winning percentage.
The White Sox need to win two more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.313 | 0.787 |
Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.805 |
95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.360 | 0.734 |
Today’s win means the White Sox will finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. The worst the White Sox can do now is 39-123, a .241 winning percentage.
The probabilities still lean toward ending the season with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. They will face the Tigers in Detroit, a team than at the moment is motivated to win all of their remaining games.