The Detroit Tigers take on the Cleveland Guardians in the first American League Division Series. It is one of three LDS series involving division rivals.
The Guardians came close to going wire to wire in first place in the AL Central. The moved into first place permanently on April 14th after a 10-5 win against the Yankees. The Royals did make a push in August, tying for first place on Aug. 27th, but that was the closest a division rival came to displacing Cleveland from the top spot.
The Tigers needed a late season surge to win a wild card slot. They went 31-13 to end the season, then stunned the Astros to make them 33-13 starting Aug. 11th.
The team ranked somewhat similar offensively:
| 2024 Batting (AL Ranks) | Tigers | Guardians |
| Runs per Game | 4.21 (9th) | 4.40 (7th) |
| Batting Average | .234 (10th) | .238 (8th) |
| On-Base Average | .300 (14th) | .307 (8th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .385 (10th) | .395 (7th) |
| Home Runs | 162 (12th) | 185 (6th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 76.0 (12th) | 76.3 (11th) |
| BABIP | .288 (5th) | .271 (15th) |
The Guardians ranks a bit better in almost every category. Th biggest gap comes in the home run column, a good place to be on the plus side of the gap. The Tigers win the BABIP gap.
The advantage in hits on balls in play does not translate to a better batting average for the Tigers. Note that manager Stephen Vogt wanted his players to “swing at pitches that we can do damage on” to increase home runs, which it did. I may also have led to some weak contact when his players wound up swinging at pitches they could not do damage on. That also led to a lower strikeout and walk rates, so those extra home runs could bring their batting average up a bit despite the poor BABIP.
The pitching and defense turned out to be similar as well:
| 2024 Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks) | Tigers | Guardians |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 3.96 (3rd) | 3.86 (2nd) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.61 (2nd) | 3.61 (2nd) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 8.4 (10th) | 8.9 (4th) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.6 (2nd) | 3.1 (8th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 22.0 (2nd) | 25.1 (6th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .709 (2nd) | .709 (2nd) |
This series appears to be shaping up to be very low scoring. Two very good pitching staffs face two middle of the road offenses. A positive for the Guardians comes from the Tiger pitchers low walk and strikeouts rates. The Guardians do a good job of putting the ball in play, and the Tigers encourage that. A positive for the Tigers comes from their ability to limit home runs, a strength for the Cleveland offense. In a low scoring series, the ability to hit home runs can result in a big impact on the game.
The Guardians won the season series 7-6, the 13 games averaging about 8.5 runs per game, about league average.
I like the Guardians batters strengths against the Tigers pitchers a little better than the other way around, but not enough to make Cleveland an overwhelming favorite. I give the Guardians a 53% chance of winning the best of five series.