The division preview series continues with the big one, the six team National League Central. I’m rating the core of the team, the eight position players, five starters and closer by value wins or WAR.

Chicago Cubs

• Position player WAR: 28.0
• Starters WAR: 15.7
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 44.3

The Cubs are loaded. The only obvious weak links on the team are at fifth starter, where Sean Marshall posted a 0.6 WAR in 2008 and centerfield with Fukudome’s 1.8 WAR. Seven of the eight position players bring 2008 value wins of at least three into this season. The Cubs, to put it mildly, are stacked.

If you put the win level for a replacement team at 47 wins, that means the Cubs are over ninety wins with no contributions from their bench or the back of the bullpen. I seldom see a core of a team that good, with the exception of the Yankees and Red Sox over the last few seasons.

While almost every one is good, there are also no extremes on the team. Only Ryan Dempster posted a WAR over five in 2008, so it’s unlikely that one major injury can bring the team down. That’s not to say there isn’t a downside to this squad, however. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley are all on the wrong side of 30. We should start expecting declines in their stats. Rich Harden still has a history of injury, so his 4.5 WAR may be optimistic. On the other hand, no one is so extreme that a huge downward move is likely, and Carlos Zambrano might very well improve his 2.8 value wins by two or three. This is a very good team.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Position player WAR: 20.7
• Starters WAR: 5.4
• Closer WAR: 0.1
• Total WAR: 25.2

CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets combined for 9.3 Brewers value wins in 2008, and Milwaukee simply hasn’t replaced those. Drop this team nine games and they fall from the wild card to fourth place in the division. A healthy Gallardo might recover three of those wins, but that still leads them in a huge hole, and the rest of the projected starters don’t appear to have much of an upside.

On offense, maybe Weeks and Fielder finally become +4.0 WAR players. I’m not knocking the pair, but given the hype over these two through their minor league careers, I expected more. Ryan Braun delivered on his promise, but Fielder and Weeks fall a bit short. That said, Hardy, Braun and Cameron give the Brewers three 4.0+ position players, so scoring runs won’t be the problem for the Brewers. With their pitching staff, however, those runs may not be enough.

Houston Astros

• Position player WAR: 20.5
• Starters WAR: 7.3
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 28.6

The Astros tie up a good chunk of their core value wins in two players, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Together they combine for 10.6 of the 28.6 value wins from 2008. Berkman is more than twice as good as the next nearest position player, beating Carlos Lee 6.9 to 3.4 in value wins. Oswalt isn’t quite that far ahead of Wandy Rodriguez, 3.7 to 2.7, but Wandy hasn’t been consistent through this career. If anything major happens to Lance or Roy, the Astros are in big trouble.

There is some upside in two of the younger hitters, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Both posted very strong on-base averages in the minors, which neither of them have come close to in the majors. Pence adds power to that equation. If the two can get on base at around a .360 rate, they should bring this offense a bit closer to the Cubs. I just don’t believe there’s enough at the back of the rotation, however, to catch Chicago.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Position player WAR: 26.2
• Starters WAR: 8.4
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 35.2

The Cardinals look like the only team in the division with a legitimate shot at beating the Cubs. A big reason for that is the 8.9 value wins posted by Albert Pujols, a quarter of the core’s total. With his elbow repaired, he might even put up better numbers this year, if that is even possible. There’s some room for upside with two players, as Khalil Greene escapes from PETCO park and Chris Carpenter returns from injury. An increase of two value wins over 2008 by both players puts the core of the Cardinals very close to 40 wins above replacement.

There are some downside possibilities, too. The biggest is Troy Glaus, who starts the season on the disabled list after posting 5.3 value wins in 2008. Ludwick and Lohse both delivered seasons outside their career norms, so expecting a repeat of their great number may be asking too much. Still, if the upside and downside balance, the Cardinals should be in the high 80s in wins, and it only takes a little luck to go from there to the playoffs.

I saw today that Motte won the closer job, so I used his 0.6 WAR instead of Franklin’s -0.4. CBS Sports listed Franklin as the closer on their depth chart.

Cincinnati Reds

• Position player WAR: 13.6
• Starters WAR: 10.2
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 24.6

The Reds are in better shape than I imagined, mostly due to their pitching. Just replicating their 2008 WAR, the core staff should be the second best in the division. The nice thing for the Reds when it comes to pitching is that there’s plenty of upside available. Aaron Harang was off in 2008. Johnny Cueto is more experienced. Either Micah Owings or Homer Baily has a good chance to improve on Owings 1.0 WAR from 2008. If these three spots in the rotation can combine for five more wins, the core of the staff pulls fairly even with the Cubs.

They would also be better than their offense at that point. While I don’t expect any surprises from Ramon Hernandez, Alex Gonzazlez or Willy Taveras, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are just getting started. A full year of Bruce and continued improvement by Votto could add three or four wins to the offensive side of the equation as well. The Reds core goes to 30 value wins at that point. That’s not enough to put them over the top, but it might be enough to keep the race interesting into late summer.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Position player WAR: 11.5
• Starters WAR: 6.1
• Closer WAR: 0.9
• Total WAR: 18.5

There’s not much chance of the Pirates reaching 82 wins, ending the streak of seasons below .500. They’re half good up the middle with a good closer, catcher and centerfielder. The rest of the team leaves a lot to be desired. Even if Andy LaRoche posts a breakout season and Freddy Sanchez bounces back from a poor year, maybe that’s another seven wins. If everything goes right they might compete for fourth place.

The Pirates need to rebuild this team. Doumit, McLouth and Andy LaRoche are a start. They need to find someone who can produce 6 to 8 value wins a year, and then these players become good complements. If they start drafting well, they may be able to be like Tampa Bay and turn the team around quickly once the new youngsters are in place.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the six teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Cubs, 55%
2. Cardinals, 15%
3. Astros, 12%
4. Brewers, 10%
5. Reds, 7%
6. Pirates, 1%

The Cubs should win this division easily provided they stay healthy. Even with a couple of injuries they have enough depth to put together a very good season. The Cardinals should challenge for the wild card, but for the Astros, Brewers and Reds, they need unexpected players to post career years or some youngsters to really improve. It seems to me the excitement in the central this season will once again come from the wild card race rather than a close battle with the Chicago.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

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