March 10, 2011

Team Offense, Boston Red Sox

Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez hopes to increase the power of the Red Sox lineup. Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. Boston finished second in the majors and the American League in offense last season, scoring 5.05 runs per game. The Yankees and Red Sox were the only teams to score over five runs a game in 2010.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Terry Francona is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 5.39 runs per game
  • Probable lineup: 5.35 runs per game
  • Worst lineup: 5.12 runs per game
  • Regressed lineup: 4.85 runs per game

The LAT is in complete agreement with the bottom of the order, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Marco Scutaro bringing up the rear. One of the first things I thought when I plugged in the Marcels was that I would flip J.D. Drew and Carl Crawford. Indeed, the LAT likes Crawford in the seventh spot, but sticks Drew there often as well.

The first seven hitters in the lineup are all good, however, so the order doesn’t matter that much. That’s why Francona’s order comes close to the optimum order despite a number of differences, especially Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Youkilis at the top instead of Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia.

There’s a good chance that the Red Sox outperform these numbers. A healthy Ellsbury and Pedroia should be better, and Adrian Gonzalez should get a boost from playing in a hitter’s park. This should be a high scoring team.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

New York Yankees

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