March 30, 2011

AL East Preview

The 2011 division previews finishes with the AL East. I’ll use 2010 WAR from FanGraphs for the evaluation. I concentrate on the projected starting position players, the five man rotation, and the closer, using the CBSSports.com depth charts.

David Price

David Price leads a solid rotation for the Rays. Photo: Icon SMI

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Position Player WAR: 22.6
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 9.0
  • Closer WAR: 1.0
  • Total WAR: 32.6

The Rays took a 6.5 WAR hit replacing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Rafael Soriano with Johnny Damon, Dan Johnson and Kyle Farnsworth. It’s not that clear where they can replace those lost wins. It’s possible Manny Ramirez stays happy and healthy and is good for four wins instead of 1.6. Wade Davis could turn into a second ace on the team and add three wins to his total from 2010. The young hitters aren’t that young anymore, so all their WARs look rather reasonable.

Even getting back what they lost in those three players, there is a huge gap between Tampa Bay and the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry. Tampa still holds a solid core, and if Boston or New York falter, the Rays could move in for the kill. At the moment, however, there’s no reason to pick them higher than third in the division.

Alex Rodriguez

Alex Rodriguez feels healthy for the first time in two years, leading to a monster spring. Photo: Icon SMIT

New York Yankees

  • Position Player WAR: 33.9
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 10.6
  • Closer WAR: 1.7
  • Total WAR: 46.2

Every year I add up the numbers, and every year I’m blown away by the Yankees core. The worst WAR among the position players belongs to Russell Martin at 2.1. Six of the players are over 3.0, and three stand over 4.0 WAR. It’s an impressive lineup. Even if you believe that Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner and Robinson Cano are due for a falloff after career years, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez could bounce back enough from off years to cover that decline. They should not have trouble scoring runs.

The rotation is okay, with Sabathia holding nearly half the value. Ivan Nova, with limited playing time in 2010 managed 0.5 WAR, so as a full time starter a two is more than possible from him. If Larry Rothschild can find a way to make A.J. Burnett more consistent, the Yankees will have a decent rotation. They should be looking at wins in the mid 90s.

Adrian Gonzalez

Adrian Gonzalez hopes to increase the power of the Red Sox lineup. Photo: Icon SMI

Boston Red Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 27.5
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 17.2
  • Closer WAR: 1.2
  • Total WAR: 45.9

The Boston core comes in just a hair behind the Yankees core, which makes me wonder why so many people have Boston as the run-away favorites in the division. There is upside in the Red Sox lineup as Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jacoby Ellsbury hardly played in 2011. Decent seasons from both of them push the Red Sox core past the Yankees.

Still, there is downside in the lineup. J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, and Kevin Youkilis are all a year older, and Kevin is going to be at third every day. Pedroia and Ellsbury are coming off injuries, and often that’s when new injuries happen. I could see the position player WAR varying 4.0 in either direction from the number above.

It’s the Red Sox rotation that shines in the division. John Lackey seemed to have an off-year but still posted a 4.0 WAR. Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are stars, and even Daisuke Matsuzaka didn’t do that badly. If Josh Beckett has some upside, the rotation should be stellar. Pundits love pitching, and it seems to be the rotation that is driving the consensus. I think the battle will be very close.

Travis Snider

Travis Snider is one of three young Blue Jays with plenty of upside potential. Photo: Icon SMI

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Position Player WAR: 15.2
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.0
  • Closer WAR: 0.1
  • Total WAR: 22.1

The low total WAR for the Blue Jays is due to the unrealized potential of a number of players. J. P. Arencibia, Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek will be playing their first full season in the majors. Just playing full time should raise their WAR, which is zero in the case of Arencibia and Drabek. Jesse Litch returns from an injury and should be adding more than a zero as well. A good year from those four could move that number as high as 30.

Of course, there is the possible drop off from Jose Bautista. His 6.9 WAR is way out of line with his career. Even if his home run power is due to adjustments he made in his swing, that level of production is difficult for anyone to maintain.

Taking all that into account, pitching could be a strength for this club, and if things fall right, that should be enough to put them over .500.

Matt Wieters

Will Matt Wieters fulfill his potential in 2011? Photo: Icon SMI

Baltimore Orioles

  • Position Player WAR: 21.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 6.1
  • Closer WAR: 0.8
  • Total WAR: 28.3

The Orioles are poised to leap-frog the Blue Jays, and with a little luck they might give the Rays a run for their money for third place. If you look at the Orioles position players, they lineup very much like the Athletics. There are no great players, but almost everyone is a little better than a two. If Adam Jones and Matt Wieters decide to live up to their hype, this is suddenly a lineup with two stars and a very good supporting cast.

What’s holding me back from putting this lineup ahead of the Rays is age. Most of the players are older, and so maintaining this level is a real question mark. Mark Reynolds is coming off a poor season at the plate. Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee bring injury issues to the field. It seems to me there is a lot more that can go wrong than right with the position players.

On the other hand, Buck Showalter had his pitching staff throwing strikes in the last two months of 2010, and that led to more wins. Keeping that up for a full season gives the staff upside that might make up for a decline in the hitters. The Orioles should be better this season than in 2010, and with health and good luck could finish third in the division.

Predictions

Here’s how I see the odds of each team winning the division:

  1. New York Yankees 40%
  2. Boston Red Sox 39%
  3. Tampa Bay Rays 9%
  4. Baltimore Orioles 7%
  5. Toronto Blue Jays 5%

Going against the consensus, I’m picking the Yankees. Early on in the off season, when the Red Sox were assembling a very good bullpen, it seems that Boston would have more depth than the Yankees. New York, however, bought Rafael Soriano and saw Joba Chamberlain bulk up and regain some velocity. The Yankees also assembled a petty good bench. I don’t think the depth issue is as big as it seemed early in the off-season. These team are very, very close, but I like the Yankees a tiny bit better. It should be a great division up and down this year.

1 thought on “AL East Preview

  1. pft

    You can not use 2010 WAR for the Red Sox projection for 2011 unless you are assuming they will have the same issue with injuries as in 2010. I would suggest for players who missed 2+ months, you use their 2009 WAR.

    I get an amazing 68 WAR, and even cutting it 20% for expected (league average) injuries, am left 54 WAR.

    ReplyReply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *