December 10, 2012

Royals-Rays Blockbuster

The Rays send James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals for four prospects, including Wil Myers.

“We have to start winning games at the major league level, and the way you develop a winning culture is by winning major league games,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore said. “It’s time for us to start winning at the major league level.”

While James Shields is a great pitcher to acquire, he’s only under contract for two more seasons, the Royals having a team option for 2014. Myers has yet to reach the majors, so the Rays delay his call up until May of this year and control him for seven years. On top of that, Jake Odorizzi, a pitcher acquired from the Royals, has great three-true outcome numbers, and just has a cup of coffee in the majors. The other two prospect don’t look that good, although Patrick Leonard is still very young. It’s tough to see how the Royals win this deal long term.

That’s not the point, however. The Royals are trying to win now. Their young stars have a bit of seasoning, and with Shields anchoring the rotation, the KC management wants to win.

The Royals suddenly have a glut of starting pitchers with Shields, Santana and Guthrie joined by Bruce Chen and Luis Mendoza, who are expected back from last year. Luke Hochevar is eligible for arbitration, while Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino will return at some point during the middle of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Davis also could be thrown into the mix.

I would say they have a glut of bodies. Ervin Santana is a real question mark, as is Mark Jeremy Guthrie. Luke Hochevar consistently pitches worse that his FIP. When that goes on year-after-year, you start to wonder if he just can’t take the pressure of pitching in the big leagues. It may take Duffy and Paulino time to return to form. Despite the number or arms, their may not be that much talent behind Shields.

Meanwhile, the Rays could have the four good hitters needed to win with their truly deep pitching staffs. Desmond Jennings, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Myers form a nice core, and the Rays are decent at filling in talent around them. I don’t expect a fall off in Tampa, especially if Longoria is healthy.

5 thoughts on “Royals-Rays Blockbuster

  1. Pft

    Prospects are never a sure thing and few teams can build a team entirely with home grown talent and bargain hunting on the free agent market.

    Teams can only look to the future for so long. At some point you have to field a competitive team, even if it’s short lasting. If I am a Royals fan I am happy.

    If Myers becomes a star the deal may look bad in a few years, but the list of prospects who failed to meet expectations at the MLB is a long list, as the Royals know very well.

    Also, with Greinke resetting the market for pitchers, the deal looks a lot better and Shields could be dealt for prospects if the Royals don’t compete.

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  2. ian

    you may want to correct the post – its Jeremy Guthrie in the Royals rotation, not former Devil Ray Mark Guthrie 🙂

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  3. Mark

    Yes, PFT, prospects are never a sure thing. But there are prospects and there are prospects.

    Myers won the minor league player of the year last year. Per Rob Neyer, here are the last 15 position players to win that award: Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Matt Wieters, Jay Bruce, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Joe Mauer, Rocco Baldelli, Eric Chavez, Paul Konerko, Andruw Jones (twice), Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez and Tim Salmon. That’s a list that should scare a Royals fan. Other than Baldelli and Young, they’re all stars or superstars.

    As a Pirates follower, I have sympathy for the Royals fans. If the Pirates made a move like this, I would not be upset with the concept of “going all in.” I would be upset with the return. With a chip like Myers, you need to do better than James Shields and you shouldn’t have to throw in other highly rated prospects.

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  4. RobertM

    “The Royals suddenly have a glut of starting pitchers…”

    It’s this fan’s experience that there is no such thing as too much pitching.

    And yeah, I root for the Red Sox… 🙁

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