The AL East features five good teams this season and for much of the season leading up to the All-Star break the teams took turns going on winning streaks. The top four teams are separated by six games, so it still is a wide open division.
Boston Red Sox, 58-39, 1st place, best record in the American League.
Strengths: Offense. The team is a Moneyball offense. Their .350 OBP leads the AL, leading Oakland in walks by five. (They’ve also suffered the most hit batters.) They lead the league in both doubles and triples. While in the past the Red Sox used the stolen base sparingly but effectively, this season they are running often and effectively. They’ve swiped 73 bases, getting caught just 16 times. About the only poor thing they do offensively is ground into double plays. That may be as much opportunity as anything.
Weakness: The pitchers walk too many batters. With a high K rate, Red Sox pitchers tend to avoid contact, even thought the defense is okay. They strand a ton of base runners, allowing a .230 BA with men in scoring position versus .250 overall. We’ll see if that evens out the rest of the season.
Outlook: The pitching is good enough for the offense, especially if they get Clay Buchholz healthy. The Red Sox should be in contention to the end baring injuries.
Tampa Bay Rays, 55-41, 2nd place, leading the AL Wild Card.
Strengths: Limiting base runners. The opposition owns a .303 OBP against the Rays, and if you scroll down at the link to look at batting slots, you’ll see five of them below .300. That includes the important #2 hitters at .284. This is a combination of pitching and defense, as they allowed 18 fewer hits than any other team.
Weaknesses: This is a really balanced team. They really are not extreme in any categories. The offense doesn’t hit for power that well, but I would call it weak either. The pitching staff gets hit more with men on than over all, making them the opposite of the Red Sox.
Outlook: They need to keep Evan Longoria and David Price healthy, and hope James Loney keeps hitting. Their pitching and defense can carry them a long way, however. They have a very good shot at making the post-season.
Baltimore Orioles, 53-42, 3rd place.
Strengths: Extra base hits. With Manny Machado threatening the single season doubles record and Chris Davis chasing the AL single season home run record, the Orioles own the highest slugging percentage in the AL. They have 17 more home runs than the next closest teams, but are dead last in triples with six. They also own an excellent defense, second in the league in UZR/150.
Weaknesses: The high slugging percentage covers a low OBP, just .316. It’s not the worst in the league, but they don’t turn the offense over much. The pitchers don’t strike out many batters, so there are quite a few balls in play that keeps the defense busy. Note that both of these weaknesses are neutralize by the strengths above.
Outlook: Chris Davis is hitting better than his career norms, so he may very well fall off in the second half. We don’t know about Machado, although few keep up that rate of doubles for a full season. The team is very dependent on their bullpen, and they could very easily wear out.
Note, too, that the one-run game luck did not carry over as the Orioles are 13-14 this season in those contests. Once again, it was probably more luck than managerial skill.
New York Yankees, 51-44, 4th place.
Strengths: Outstanding pitching. The Yankees staff records a ton of strike outs with very few walks, helping them hold opponents under four runs per game. Their 3.95 runs per game is the second lowest in the AL. The other is Robinson Cano carrying the offense. While the defense isn’t great, with all the old guys injured, it’s above average this season.
Weaknesses: The worst Yankees offense since the early 1990s. They don’t hit, they don’t walk enough to make up for the lack of hits, and they’re near the bottom of the league in home runs. They’ve scored two fewer runs than their opponents allowed, making them very lucky to be seven games over .500.
Outlook: Most teams, given the amount of injuries, would have packed it in by now. This group is resilient. Maybe Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter get healthy in the second half and give the pitching staff enough runs to legitimately stay well above .500. If not, I would bet against the good luck lasting.
Toronto Blue Jays, 45-49, 5th place.
Strengths: Power, although they are the Orioles light. The teams have the same OBP, with the Blue Jays hitting somewhat fewer doubles and homers than Baltimore.
Weaknesses: Batters getting on base and pitchers allowing home runs. The Blue Jays brought in three potentially great pitchers in R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Josh Johnson, and all own ERAs over 4.50. Those three, and the staff as a whole, allows a ton of home runs.
Outlook: The three pitchers above have the ability to turn around their season. With four teams to pass, they’ll have a very tough time making the playoffs, however.
Nice summary. All of the teams are flawed to some extent and while the Red Sox look like the best of the bunch, they have had a 550 WP since May 6.
They also have some players who might falter in the 2nd half like Salty (as usual), Iglesias (regression), Napoli (career high playing time), Lackey (missed all last season, durability), Dempster (faltered last year in 2nd half), Doubront (faltered last year in 2nd half) and Koji (being abused in terms of workload). Papi has carried the team offensivley H and A. Pedroia has a 673 OPS on the road but has been MVP at home.
The Buchholz injury is looking like something that will prevent him from being the ace he was in the first 2 months.
If Baltimore can get some pitching I like them best, and the Yankees are still close enough to the Red Sox to make a run for it if they get some hitting and can hold on long enough for the old guys to get healthy. Long shot for the Yankees though.
Rays starting pitching has not impressed me but I have only seen them against the Red Sox, and Price was not healthy in those games. The bullpen looked shaky as well. They are beating up on NL teams and weak AL teams and holding their own against everyone else except Boston.
I think the most intriguing thing about the Red Sox is that they are performing so well despite a really miserable two months (since May 20th) for Jon Lester. His ERA is over 6 in that period.
Since he’s bound to be better than that in August and September, improved pitching might well compensate for what I expect to be an offense that regresses.
It’s kind of amazing if you compare last year’s personnel to this year’s, and then last year’s team performance to this year’s.
Surprised to see that the Yankees actually have a -2 run differential coming out of the ASB. They’re fortunate to be above .500 (it helps to have the great Rivera at the back end of the bullpen).
I think there’s a real possibility that New York plays sub-.500 ball the rest of the way, especially if Cano is hampered by the HBP he suffered in the All Star game. Depending on whether/how much Cano, Jeter, and A-Rod are available, the Yankees could be starting some pretty terrible infields over the coming weeks.