Category Archives: Trades

January 13, 2026

Cardinals Dump Arenado

The Cardinals traded third baseman Nolan Arenado to Arizona for a pitcher with no professional experience. Jack Martinez pitched in college through his age 22 season and went to the Diamondbacks in the eighth round of the 2025 draft:

Arenado is owed $42 million over the next two seasons, and Arizona will receive $31 million in the deal, a source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, though the present-day impact for the Cardinals comes out to less than that as St. Louis will pay out the $6 million in deferred money owed to Arenado, which isn’t payable until 2040-41.

Arenado had a no-trade clause that he waived for the D-backs.
MLB.com

Martinez doesn’t strike me as an outstanding prospect, although he did get his walks under control as a senior. Arizona had to send a body the Cardinals way, and he was it. Musings Marcels projects Arenado to hit .253/.306/.403 in 2026. Diamondbacks third basemen combined to hit .234/.309/.488 in 2025, so not really an improvement. I suspect Arenado’s power will be higher in 2026 due to the elevation of Phoenix, but a .488 slugging percentage might be a stretch.

January 7, 2026

Bear Catches a Fish

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The Cubs made a deal with the Marlins to bring a starting pitcher to Chicago:

The Cubs on Wednesday acquired pitcher Edward Cabrera in a trade with the Marlins that sent top outfield prospect Owen Caissie and two other hitting prospects to Miami.

The Cubs also dealt away infield prospects Cristian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon in exchange for Cabrera, a popular trade target for multiple contenders who will improve a Chicago rotation that includes veterans Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga.
ESPN.com

Cabrera cracked 100 innings for the first time in 2025. Injuries to his right shoulder caused much of that. In 2025, elbow issues limited him to 26 starts in what turned out to be his best season. His walk rate came in at 3.14 batters per nine innings, down from his 4.50 BB/9IP for his career. His 3.53 ERA was good for two fWAR. We’ll see if the Cubs can keep him healthy.

Caissie received a cup of coffee from the Cubs in 2025, but tended to get better as he rose through the minors. He posted high OBPs and strong slugging percentages at both AA and AAA. Hernandez plays 2026 as a 22-year-old, but has not made it out of A ball. De Leon, just 18 in 2025, put up very good numbers in a limited number of plate appearances in rookie ball.

The Marlins were strong offensively in leftfield during the 2025 season with Kyle Stowers. While Caissie mostly played leftfield in the minors, he played enough in rightfield to handle that position as well.

It looks like both teams got something they needed. The Cubs rotation was a bit old, and Cabrera comes over still in his prime. The Marlins get a young player with multiple offensive weapons, and some future potential from De Leon. A nice deal for both teams.

December 23, 2025

Trade Direction

The Mets and Athletics executed a trade, swapping a veteran for a very young pitcher. One of the teams is trying to win this year, while the other appears to be rebuilding. Some might be surprised by which is which:

While pitching is the main area of focus for the Athletics this offseason, they shored up one of their few remaining needs on the position-player side on Monday by acquiring infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil from the Mets in exchange for right-hander Yordan Rodriguez.

The A’s will also receive $5.75 million from New York, a source told MLB.com, to help cover the cost of McNeil’s contract, which has one year and $17.75 million remaining. To clear a spot for McNeil on the 40-man roster, the A’s designated left-hander Ken Waldichuk for assignment.
MLB.com

Rodriguez played 2025 as a 17 year old and struck out 20 batters in 15 1/3 innings of rookie ball. If he turns out to be great, we might see him in the majors in 2028. Clearly, the Mets are in a rebuilding mode. I wonder what Juan Soto thinks about this? I suspect he didn’t think he would wind up back on the 2022 Nationals after signing his large contract.

Meanwhile the Athletics shore up second base, where they saw hitters combine for a .199/.267/.283 mark in 2025. McNeil, while not great anymore, should improve on that. The A’s upgraded the worst offensive position on the team, and they certainly look like they are trying to win in 2026. How the tables have turned.

December 22, 2025

Two Ls for First

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The Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras from the Cardinals to play first base.

The Boston Red Sox acquired first baseman Willson Contreras in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, the second big deal between the teams this winter as the Cardinals rebuild and the Red Sox aim to stay competitive in the cutthroat American League East division.

Contreras, 33, has been one of the steadiest right-handed hitters in baseball since his debut and will bring his well-above-average glove to a position Boston had spent the offseason trying to fill. The Red Sox will receive $8 million to cover the remaining $42.5 million on the three-time All-Star’s contract and sent right-hander Hunter Dobbins and right-handed pitching prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita to the Cardinals.
ESPN.com

Contreras posted very consistent fWARs in his career, with six of his seasons coming in between 2.4 and 2.8 fWAR, overall averaging 2.4 fWAR per season. Most of that comes from his offense, as he posted negative defensive numbers most seasons, including 2025.

I don’t quite see the advantage of this deal compared to sticking with the oft injured Triston Casas. Musings Marcels pegs Cacas at .245/.338/.445 in 2026, Contreras at .254/.345/.443, Cacas at a much lower price tag. If the two wind up platooning, The Red Sox gave up some young talent for a part-time first baseman.

It does look like Contreras might pepper the way at Fenway. Baseball Savant projects Contreras’ hits onto Fenway Park, and it does look like he’ll give the wall a beating.

December 20, 2025

AL Beast

The Rays and Orioles made a trade to strengthen both teams, the Orioles in the short run and the Rays in the long run:

The Baltimore Orioles acquired right-hander Shane Baz in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, sending a four-prospect package and a draft pick in a rare intradivision deal.

Following a search all winter for starting pitching, the Orioles targeted Baz and paid a heavy price, giving up outfielder Slater de Brun and catcher Caden Bodine — both first-round picks this year — breakout right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn and a competitive-balance Round A pick that comes with more than $2.5 million in slot money, sources said.
ESPN.com

I will say that seems like a lot for a pitcher projected to post a 4.25 ERA at FanGraphs. Musings Marcels projects opponents hitting .234/.308/.400 against him, which is pretty good. If the Orioles can get him to lower his opposition isolated power, he would be much better.

The Rays set themselves up for another run of punctuated greatness. Tampa Bay does not stay down for long as they do a good job of restocking the farm system, and in a couple of years this should look like a very good team again. Bodine plays 2026 as a 22 year old, and could be up soon. de Brun has yet to play professionally at seasonal age 19 in 2026. Forret learned to control his walks in 2025, and his ERA plummeted. Overn gets on base with little power, and is old for his level of the minor leagues. Still, a good OBP is a valuable tool.

Once again, the AL East is stacked. The Rays may take one on the chin this season, but they will not be down for long. Some team has to finish last.

December 19, 2025

Lowe to the Pirates

Brandon Lowe winds up with the Pirates as part of a three-team trade:

The Rays are sending Lowe, left-hander Mason Montgomery and outfielder Jake Mangum to Pittsburgh, who in turn are dealing right-hander Mike Burrows to Houston. The Astros are sending outfielder Jacob Melton and right-hander Anderson Brito to Tampa Bay.

The 31-year-old Lowe, an All-Star in 2019 and 2025, gives the Pirates a veteran bat for a lineup in desperate need of some pop to support a promising young pitching staff led by National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes.
Chron.com

Lowe will be a free agent at the end of the season. The whole Pirates infield hit poorly in 2025, so this will be an upgrade, but not a stunning upgrade. Lowe’s OBP and power are down from his peak years. Mangum was a 29-year-old rookie in 2025, so he is past his prime as well. The Astros get a decent pitcher in Burrows. Brito may be the catch of the deal. He plays 2026 as a 21-year-old and has been tough to hit in the minors.

This deal strikes me as the Rays saving some money, helping the Pirates a bit, and the three teams simply rearranged their rosters a bit.

December 14, 2025

Collins and Ks

The Royals picked up outfielder Isaac Collins from the Brewers, as the teams also swapped relief pitchers in the deal. I found this description of Collins contradictory, however (emphasis added):

The 28-year-old finished fourth in the National League Rookie of the Year voting last season after posting a slash line of .263/.368/.411 with a 118 OPS+, nine home runs and 54 RBIs. His profile is one that fits the Royals — lots of contact, not a lot of chase. Evaluators add that he brings consistent and gritty at-bats that make pitchers work.

Collins’ 18.4% chase rate ranked in MLB’s 98th percentile, per Statcast, and he recorded just a 22.5% whiff rate. His 12.9% walk rate was tied for 19th in baseball (minimum 400 plate appearances). While there could be some regression for Collins next year in his second full season in the Major Leagues, the on-base and swing decisions typically aren’t things that fall off for hitters. That skill set is exactly why the Royals targeted him to lengthen the lineup.
MLB.com

I don’t consider a 22.5% strikeout rate low. (At FanGraphs, it’s 24.4% for his career.) While it’s true that he doesn’t chase and makes contact, it’s also true that he appears to take a lot of called strike threes. That’s not a negative per se, as taking those border line pitches leads to a high number of walks. Collins is not a contact hitter compared to Luis Arraez or Steven Kwan. Taking that border line third strike could be a weakness that pitchers find a way to exploit.

December 7, 2025

Catching On

The Nationals and Mariners executed a trade that made sense for both teams:

The Washington Nationals traded left-hander Jose Ferrer to the Seattle Mariners for top catching prospect Harry Ford and minor league pitcher Isaac Lyon, the teams announced Saturday.
ESPN.com

Ferrer limits walks and home runs, but his strikeout rate is low enough that plenty of balls get put in play. Washington fielders showed poor range in 2025, and Ferrer’s ERA in his three seasons there came out higher than his FIP. He is the type of pitcher who needs a good defense behind him to succeed.

Ford gets on base, and going into his age 23 season he tended to be young for his minor league levels. Despite that he posted excellent OBPs. The Mariners, with Cal Raleigh at catcher, found more value for Ford in a trade. The Nats catchers generated little offense in 2025.

So the Nats made themselves stronger up the middle by trading a good pitcher who doesn’t work well on their roster. It’s a smart move by the new front office.

Lyon pitched only 12 1/3 professional innings, but limited walks and home runs in college.

December 5, 2025

Password Reset

The Red Sox traded Jhostynxon Garcia, known as “The Password”, to the Pirates for Johan Oviedo:

The Red Sox are acquiring Oviedo, left-handed pitcher Tyler Samaniego, and catcher Adonys Guzman from the Pirates for outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia and right-handed pitcher Jesus Travieso, according to Robert Murray.
NESN.com

Oviedo missed all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery, then suffered a Lat injury in 2025. He owns a low opposition BABIP, but walks a ton of batters. While this trade might be about Oviedo short term, Guzman is a catcher who gets on base. He is going into his seasonal age 22 season, so there is upside there.

Garcia gets on base, and owns distributed power, with plenty of doubles, triples, and home runs.

November 25, 2025

Gray Day

The Red Sox acquired pitcher Sonny Gray from the Cardinals for two players and other considerations:

Vocal about the need to add an established starting pitcher to slot behind ace Garrett Crochet in the starting rotation, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow achieved that goal on Tuesday by adding veteran righty and three-time All-Star Sonny Gray in a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals.

In exchange, Boston sent right-hander Richard Fitts and lefty prospect Brandon Clarke — the team’s No. 5 prospect per MLB Pipeline at the time of the trade — to the Cardinals.
MLB.com

The Red Sox also received $20 million from St. Louis and were able to rework Gray’s contract for Competitive Balance Tax reasons.

The last two seasons Gray posted high ERAs but low xFIPs. His very good three-true outcome rates earned him 7.4 fWAR over the last two seasons. Note that rWAR, which measures what he actually accomplished, put him at 3.2. rWAR over the same time period. That value is more reflective of his 4.07 ERA. He tended to give up power with men on base, and that’s when giving up power hurts one the most.

In general, I consider fWAR more predictive, so in that sense this looks like a good move. Fitts looked more impressive in the minors than the majors, and the Cardinals ballpark might be a better fit for him. Clarke owns 38 innings in A ball in his professional career, striking out 60 batters but walking 27 and hitting 12 . He has yet to allow a home run, however. So 99 of the 174 batters he faced did not put the ball in play. He is 22, so not terribly young, and we’ll see if the Cardinals can get his walks under control.

November 23, 2025

Swapping Veterans

There seems to be some excitement about the Mets and Rangers swapping veteran players:

The Mets’ first major move after missing the postseason involved trading their longest-tenured player.

They’re sending Brandon Nimmo — who had a full no-trade clause after inking his eight-year, $162 million deal back in 2022 — to the Rangers in exchange for infielder Marcus Semien, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed.

The Mets’ longtime outfielder approved the deal, according to Heyman.
NYPost.com

Rangers right fielders hit poorly in 2025, so Nimmo provides an upgrade at that position. He remains a solid two to three WAR player as he goes into his age 33 season. The Mets second basemen hit on par with Semien in 2025. Semien’s age 34 season proved to be an off-year for the late blooming middle infielder, after five of his previous six seasons saw him post fWARs over 4.0, and with three seasons of at least six fWAR. I suspect the Mets believe that he will bounce back at seasonal age 35, and his projections are for 2.9 fWAR.

Note that Semien didn’t just suffer and offensive decline, but a defensive one as well. The injury that shortened his season came at the end, so it did not factor into his poor performance. With an overall decline like that, I tend to think it is age related. If Semien can turn in a three-WAR performance for the Mets, the deal will probably be worth it.

November 19, 2025

Odd Trade

The Orioles and Angels made an odd swap of players:

The Baltimore Orioles acquired outfielder Taylor Ward from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on Tuesday night, an intriguing one-for-one swap that filled clear needs for both teams.

The Orioles went into the offseason seeking a power-hitting outfielder and get one in Ward, who is entering his final season before free agency. The Angels sought a top-of-the-rotation starter and hope to get one in Rodriguez, a once-promising prospect who spent the 2025 season sidelined by injury.
ESPN.com

The article paints Ward in a rather favorable light, and it’s true that he produced consecutive seasons of a little under 3.0 fWAR. His best season, however, came in 2022 at seasonal age 28. His OBP declined every year since, and so far he balanced that with an increase in power. He became an easy out when not hitting home runs. If the power declines, he becomes a poor player. On top of that, he will be a free agent at the end of the 2026 season, so the Orioles are really just renting him for a year, hoping for the best.

This really makes me believe that the Orioles don’t believe Rodriguez works as a long-term solution. At seasonal age 26 in 2026 , he remains in his early prime.

The Orioles already were expected to be among the more aggressive teams for starting pitching this offseason, and Rodriguez’s departure makes that need even more acute.

It looks like he had more upside than downside, and should have been worth more than an aging one-year rental. Anaheim tends not to be a place where starting pitchers thrive, but at first glance, this could turn out to be great deal for the Angels. We won’t know how this moves fits in with the Orioles plans for 2026 until we see what other moves the team makes in the coming months.

July 31, 2025

Forcing a Deal

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It seems like Carlos Correa forced the Twins to trade him to the Astros:

“I had some conversations with the front office in Minnesota, and we were not moving [the direction] I thought we were after making the playoffs [in 2023],” Correa told MLB.com on Thursday, “and they agreed with me that it was time to move me.

“I let them know there was only one team I would allow that to happen.”
ESPN.com

Correa’s numbers are down again after an excellent 2024, so he may be one of the reasons the Twins were not moving in the right direction. The Astros needed a third baseman, however, and Correa agreed fill that need.

Matt Mikulski goes to the Twins in return. He’s a 26 year old still in A ball who walks too many batters. So this was a salary dump by the Twins.

July 31, 2025

DBacks Deal Another

The Rangers improved an already good rotation as they acquired the contract of Merrill Kelly from the Diamondbacks:

Kelly, 36, is making $7 million in the final season of his contract and has put together a nice year, going 9-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 22 starts for a D-backs rotation that has, outside of him, underperformed. Since the start of June, Kelly boasts a 2.56 ERA.

The Diamondbacks are getting left-handed pitchers Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt and right-hander David Hagaman from the Rangers in return.
ESPN.com

Throughout his career, Kelly held batters to low BABIPs, and this season is one of his best at .247. He gives them depth down the stretch in case of a major injury.

Drake rose through the Rangers farm system quickly as he combines a high K rate with a low walk rate. Bratt is seasonal age 21and has 123 2/3 AA innings, walking just two batters per 9 IP. Hagaman only pitched 22 1/3 minor league innings, but like his fellow travelers, his K and BB numbers are very good. Both teams did well in this deal.

July 31, 2025

Orioles Selling

The Orioles moved players today, sending Cedric Mullins to the Mets and two players, Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano to the Padres. The Padres had a very busy day:

The move comes after Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller made a shocking move earlier in the day to acquire lights-out closer Mason Miller and controllable starter JP Sears from the Athletics. Later, Preller improved his catching situation by bringing in Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals.
ESPN.com

No word in the article on who the Orioles received in return. They did get three minor league pitchers from the Mets:

Going back to Baltimore are Single-A pitchers Raimon Gomez and Chandler Marsh along with Double-A pitcher Anthony Nunez.
ESPN.com

Gomez batters strikeout and walk at a high rate against Gomez. Marsh is similar, with both rates a bit lower. Nunez recently converted to pitching, and again Ks and walks a ton of batters. If the Orioles don’t want to see their defense tested, this is a good group of pitchers. Laureano is easily having his best season at the plate, and I suspect the Orioles got a haul for these two hitters.

O’Hearn showed an impressive change in his approach at the plate after leaving the Royals for the Orioles. Both his batting average and OBP rose. He’s swinging less at pitches outside the strike zone, and seeing more pitches inside the zone.

Mullins is in his third season in a row of a .305 OBP, but does deliver extra-base hits, power at a high cost of outs.

July 31, 2025

The Closer Paradox

I just finished work for the day and am scrolling through the baseball news seeing more teams in contention trading for closers. That made me wonder, if closers are so important to winning, how did the contenders get into contention without a great closer, and if not contenders have such great closers, why are they not in contention?

July 31, 2025

Slugging in Seattle

The Mariners are poised to add another home run bat as they have a deal in place to re-acquire Eugenio Suarez from the Diamondbacks:

The deal, which is pending a medical review, will send first baseman Tyler Locklear and right-handers Juan Burgos and Hunter Cranton to the Diamondbacks, who already had dealt first baseman Josh Naylor to Seattle less than a week earlier.

Suárez, 34, ranks fifth in the majors with 36 home runs and rejoins a Mariners team with which he spent the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
ESPN.com

I don’t know how much to expect from Suarez. When he played for the Mariners before, he hit .234/.327/.423, and the split was fairly even home and road. With the Diamondbacks, he hit .253/.319/.513, but just .238/.303/.448 on the road. So Seattle is very much getting the player they had before, not someone who magically changed his swing at seasonal age 33.

Locklear posted big numbers in the minors, and it makes one wonder why he wasn’t in the Mariners lineup. It could be PCL inflation. Burgos keeps the ball in park, something that is always useful for pitching in Arizona. Cranton only has 18 1/3 minor league innings under his belt, but struck out 28 batters. At seasonal age 24, he is old for A ball.

July 30, 2025

Apos-Trade-phe

The Reds acquired third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes from the Pirates for reliever Taylor Rogers and prospect Sammy Stafura.

The Reds rank 28th in OPS from their third basemen this season, compiling a .620 mark. Hayes has a career .676 OPS while playing stellar defense, winning the Gold Glove in 2023. His 16 defensive runs saved this season is eight more than any other MLB third baseman, according to Sports Info Solutions.

“He might be the best defender in baseball. If not, he’s right there,” Cincinnati manager Terry Francona said shortly after the deal was finalized. “We’re trying to find ways to get better. We care so much about trying to play clean baseball, and this will be a huge step in that direction.”
ESPN.com

This is purely a defensive move, unless Hayes somehow makes a tremendous improvement in offense getting out of Pittsburgh. Both his OBP and Slugging percentages are below .300 this season. Stafura is in his seasonal age 20 season and has a .384 OBP at A ball. He’s a shortstop, and looks like a very good addition for the Pirates.

From the Reds point of view, this looks more like a “We had to do something, and this is something.”

Also note that both the Rogers twins were traded today.

July 30, 2025

You Can’t Put Too Many Closers in a Major League Bullpen

Both the Phillies and Mets trade for closers on Tuesday. The Phillies landed Jhoan Duran:

The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a trade for Jhoan Duran, one of baseball’s best relievers, sources told ESPN on Wednesday, and paid a high price to the Minnesota Twins to get it done.

According to sources, Minnesota received catcher Eduardo Tait, regarded as a Top 100 prospect, and pitcher Mick Abel, a rookie with six years of team control. They’re ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among the Phillies’ minor league prospects, per ESPN.
ESPN.com

Note that Duran’s strikeout rate is down this season and his walk rate is up. Tait is playing his age 18 season at high A ball. He’s hit .288/.349/.470 in three seasons. The sky’s the limit for Tait. Abel is a high K, high walk pitcher, and his ERA at every minor league level was over 4.00. Tait is the one to watch.

It’s been a while since the Phillies won the World Series, and I think they’d like to do that while Bryce Harper is still good. That group, Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber are not young any more.

The Mets take Ryan Helsley from the Cardinals:

The New York Mets are acquiring two-time All-Star reliever Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals for three minor leaguers, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Wednesday.

Though one of baseball’s top closers, Helsley is expected to serve as a setup man for Mets All-Star closer Edwin Diaz. He is the second right-handed reliever landed by the Mets via trade on Wednesday, joining Tyler Rogers, who was acquired from the San Francisco Giants for three players hours earlier.

The additions provide very different looks. Rogers is a submariner with an 83-mph sinker. Helsley is a traditional hard-throwing late-inning reliever with an arsenal that centers around a fastball that averages over 99 mph.
ESPN.com

Like Jhoan, Helsley’s three true outcomes slipped from last season. Rogers needs a great defense behind him, with both K and BB rates. The Mets defense is okay.

I think the problem with deals for relievers, and relievers in general, comes from all their work being a small sample. It’s tough to know how well a reliever will do, since a couple of bad outings, or a couple of great outings, can skew the perception of the pitcher. I just can’t get excited about trades for relievers.

July 29, 2025

Two Teams, One Town, One Day

The visiting Blue Jays and the home town Orioles made a trade between games of their doubleheader:

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired right-handed reliever Seranthony Dominguez from the Baltimore Orioles for right-handed pitching prospect Juaron Watts-Brown.

Dominguez didn’t have to go far to join his new team as the two clubs are in the middle of a four-game series in Baltimore, one that includes a doubleheader that will be completed later Tuesday ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s finale.

Dominguez has not pitched in the series but was active for Tuesday’s Game 1 for Baltimore and will be active in Game 2 for Toronto.
ESPN.com

Dominguez owns a career high 11.66 K per 9 this season, but his walk rate of 5.18 per 9 IP is also a single season high.

I do hope he gets knighted some day.

Watts-Brown, seasonal age 24 is also a high K, high BB pitcher.

July 26, 2025

Royals Get Grichuk

The Royals traded pitcher Andrew Hoffman to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Randal Grichuk. After a very good season in 2024, Grichuk returned to closer to his poor career averages in 2024. He does produce a good number of doubles and triples, and the Royals home field is very good at encouraging those types of hits. He strengths could useful.

Hoffman owned a 5.19 ERA in three seasons at AAA. This looks like a salary dump for the Diamondbacks, even though Grichuk’s salary wasn’t that high.

July 25, 2025

McMahon to the Yankees

The Rockies parted with third baseman Ryan McMahon, sending him to the Yankees for a two minor league pitchers:

The Yankees are acquiring third baseman Ryan McMahon from the Rockies in exchange for minor league pitchers Griffin Herring and Josh Grosz, sources confirmed to ESPN on Friday.

The Yankees will assume the remainder of 30-year-old McMahon’s contract, which includes approximately $4.5 million for the remainder of 2025 and $32 million over the next two seasons.
ESPN.com

My first thought that this must be a very happy day for McMahon, moving from the worst team in the league to one in line for the playoffs. My second thought is the pitchers might be thinking, “Oh no, I have to pitch in Colorado!”

If the Yankees were looking for offense, McMahon may not be it. According to FanGraphs, the offensive element of his offense for their WAR calculation was always negative. You can see that in his road numbers. He owns a career .216/.302/.362 slash line, meaning his walks a bit and can hit for a bit of power. Yankees third basemen are hitting .214/.293/.361 this year.

On the positive side, McMahon is a left-handed batter who hits better against righties, and Yankee Stadium can help lefties. I don’t know that this really solves the problem at third base, especially when the Yankees are on the hook for two more years.

Herring is seasonal age 22 an owns a 1.71 ERA in 89 1/3 innings at A Ball. Grosz is also 22, with 208 2/3 innings under his belt in the minors with a 3.97 ERA. He only made it out of A ball briefly last season.

If this is the best the Yankees could do at third base, they might need a different GM.

July 24, 2025

Naylor to the Ms

The Mariners made a deal with the Diamondbacks for first baseman Josh Naylor:

The deal, which sends left-handed pitching prospect Brandyn Garcia and right-handed pitching prospect Ashton Izzi to the Diamondbacks, reinforces Seattle’s intentions to aggressively add to its roster before the July 31 deadline.
ESPN.com

Seattle first basemen hit .233/.298/.412 this season. That decent power at the cost of a ton of outs. Naylor posted a .292/.360/.447 slash line for Arizona, so his ability to get on base should extend the Mariners offense. Seattle does a nice job of plugging a hole in their offense.

At seasonal age 25, Garcia doesn’t seem like a prospect to me. He did post a 2.94 ERA in 159 1/3 minor league innings, thanks to a low home run rate. Izzi plays in his third minor league season at age 21. He owns a 4.13 career ERA and has not pitched beyond A Ball.

June 15, 2025

The West Coast View

Raising Matt Cain provides a Giants fan take on the Rafael Devers trade.

June 15, 2025

Devers a Giants

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The Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the Giants:

The Giants are sending starter Jordan Hicks and 23-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison, among others, to Boston in exchange, sources said.

Devers, 28, is in just the second season of a 10-year, $313.5 million contract he signed to stay in Boston in January 2023, however his relationship with the team suffered a significant blow after the star third baseman was reportedly blindsided by a move to designated hitter in the spring.
ESPN.com

One wonders if Devers will play third base with Matt Chapman on the illjured list. Giants designated hitters are at .236/.315/.351, so Devers would give them some power at the position.

Hicks owns a 6.47 ERA this season, but over his career is very good at keeping the ball in park by keeping it on the ground. That should come in handy at Fenway. Harrison owns a 4.48 ERA in 182 2/3 MLB innings. Harrison struck out batters at an extremely high rate in the minors, but that has yet to translate to the majors.

The trade also fixes the log jam in Boston due to the call up of a number of prospects. Having the designated hitter spot flexible allows Boston to move players in and out of the order easier and give them semi-days of rest.

Update: Red Sox also get prospects James Tibbs and Jose Bello. Bello has not gotten out of rookie ball, Mr. Tibbs is not all that impressive. Also this on why the Red Sox were willing to move Devers and basically dump salary:

January 6, 2025

Seeing the Light

The Reds traded for Dodgers infielder Gavin Lux:

Lux, 27, won two World Series titles with the Dodgers and showed flashes of the talent that at one point had him ranked among the best prospects in baseball. With the team moving Mookie Betts to shortstop last season and signing infielder Hyeseong Kim last week, Lux was available via trade. The Dodgers received Cincinnati’s competitive balance Round A pick (worth around $2.5 million in bonus-pool money) and outfielder Mike Sirota, a third-round pick in 2024.
ESPN.com

At seasonal age 27, Lux should be at the peak of his game. Note that after missing all of 2023, Lux pretty much hit his career averages in 2024. He hit extremely well from July on. If Lux gets on base like he did in the second half, he’ll provide more opportunities for RBI.

Siorta has yet to play professional ball.

December 22, 2024

The Lowe Down

The Nationals and Rangers completed a trade that brought Washington first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in exchange for reliever Robert Garcia.

TalkNats likes the trade:

In 2024, Lowe once again showed excellent first base defense with a +7 OAA, and that came a year after he won the AL Gold Glove. His 2024 wRC+ was 121, and that shows his value as a run producer. He also put up an impressive + 2.8 WAR for the 2024 season. He also has a Louisville Slugger Silver Slugger Award in his trophy case from the 2022 season.

As a member of the 2023 World Champion Texas Rangers, Lowe brings that pedigree to D.C. In 2024, Lowe ranked 6th in walks (71) and 9th in on-base percentage (.361). His .361 on-base percentage ranked second among American League first basemen, while his .762 OPS ranked third. Lowe’s 12.6% walk rate ranked fourth in all of MLB.
TalkNats.com

Garcia only pitched 63 MLB innings. His three true outcomes are all outstanding, and indicate an FIP of 2.38 and an xFIP of 2.77 compared to his actual ERA of 4.22. He is a late bloomer, as he’ll pitch 2025 as a 29 year-old.

December 21, 2024

Break up the Naylors

The Guardians trade Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks:

Full trade, per ESPN sources:

Arizona acquires: 1B Josh Naylor

Cleveland acquires: RHP Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance Round B draft pick
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2024

So the Diamondbacks find a replacement for Christian Walker. Naylor is a solid 2.5 WAR player, still in his prime. He is low BABIP, high power, with a decent enough OBP. He may do very well hitting at a higher altitude.

Slade Cecconi posted a 6.66 ERA in 2024 for a team whose symbol is a snake. Seems like a match made in heaven. In his brief MLB career, batters hit him hard in Phoenix. Getting out of that park should be a good move. He also posted a high ERA in the minors, failing to limit hits despite a high K rate. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters, so maybe the Guardians see a way to improve his outcomes.

December 21, 2024

Battery Flip

The Yankees and Reds exchange a catcher for a reliever:

The New York Yankees traded catcher Jose Trevino to the Cincinnati Reds for right-hander Fernando Cruz and catcher Alex Jackson, the teams announced Friday.
ESPN.com

The ESPN article makes this out to be a bigger deal than it looks on the surface. Both players are in their early thirties, and past their primes. Both came to the majors late. Trevino brings little offensively to the table; he belongs in the “great handler of pitchers” bin. Cruz strikes out a ton of batters, but it comes with a great deal of wildness. He shuts down right-handed batters. While left-handed batters hit for a low BA against him, they have a high OBP and a high isolated power. The best use of Cruz would be to get the last out of an inning when the other team is forced to use a right-handed batter. I would not want him to start an inning.

Jackson has never hit, but he does represent a good defensive backup with MLB experience.

December 17, 2024

Yankees Ring In Bellinger

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The Yankees and Cubs executed a trade that bring Cody Bellinger to The Bronx will sending pitcher Cody Poteet to Chicago. The Yankees also get $5 million to cover part of Bellinger’s salary. He may wind up playing first base:

Bellinger’s versatility fits perfectly to fill holes in New York’s lineup. He is an above-average center fielder and can either play there or in left field if the Yankees prefer to use rookie Jasson Dominguez in center. He also is a top defensive first baseman, and while Anthony Rizzo‘s free agency opened the position, New York could opt for an in-house option in Ben Rice or pursue Pete Alonso or Christian Walker in free agency.
ESPN.com

Dominguez played leftfield poorly for the Yankees, making it hard for me to believe that he is a good centerfielder. Looking at his minor league numbers, most of his games were in center, so it’s possible he was not used to the different angle of seeing the ball.

Bellinger saw his fWAR fall in half, from 4.4 in 2023 to 2.2 in 2024. He played 130 games in each season. The Cubs were playing him like a 2.5 WAR player, so the Yankees could wind up doing very well price wise in the deal if Bellinger posts a 3+ WAR season.

Poteet is older, going into his age 30 season with just 83 MLB innings. He has consistently out performed his FIPs however, so he’s doing something right. It’s a contract dump for the Cubs.