Category Archives: Pitchers

April 25, 2024

Games of the Day

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Jose Berrios leads the Blue Jays against the Royals and Cole Ragans. Berrios is off to a great start. He leads the AL in wins with four and stands second in ERA with a 0.85 mark. Ragans posted outstanding three-true outcomes this year, but his .414 opposition BABIP may indicate his defense let him down a bit.

The Dodgers send Yoshinobu Yamamoto against the Nationals and MacKenzie Gore. In his first five starts, Yamamoto owns a 4.50 ERA, but like Ragans his underlying numbers indicate he pitches better than his ERA. Gore allowed just one home run this year in 20 innings after allowing 27 dingers in 136 1/3 innings in 2023.

Enjoy!

April 24, 2024 April 24, 2024

Games of the Day

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Spencer Turnbull takes on Nick Lodolo as the Phillies visit the Reds. Turnbull posted good numbers in 2021, but Tommy John surgery knocked him out until 2023. He seems to have regained his low walk, low home run profile. Lodolo makes his third start of the season and has yet to allow a home run in 12 innings after giving up 10 dingers in 34 innings last year.

Bryse Wilson leads the Brewers against the Pirates and Josh Fleming. Wilson makes his second start of the season to go with six relief appearances. He held batters to a .206 BABIP so far, although three of the ten hits against him went for home runs. Fleming pitches to contact with a 6.1 K per 9 IP this season and a 2.6 walks per 9 IP. In the past, home runs hurt him but he has yet to allow a long ball in his 10 1/3 relief innings.

Bryce Miller battles Jon Gray as the Mariners continue their series against the Rangers. Miller’s 1.85 ERA is just out of the top five in the AL. His defense played well behind him, as he limits batters to a .172 BABIP. Gray blew away batters so far this season with 25 K in 20 IP.

Enjoy!

April 23, 2024 April 23, 2024

Quite a Lively Pitcher

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Ben Lively of the Guardians gave the team a great start against the Red Sox. He walked none and struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings, although he left trailing 1-0. The Guardians scored four runs after that as the team took the game 4-1. Lively lowers his ERA to 2.38 in 11 1/3 innings. He’s walked just one batter this year.

Maybe he should meet Tessie:

April 23, 2024

Games of the Day

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Tanner Houck and the Red Sox face the Guardians and Ben Lively in Cleveland. Houck stands near the top of the Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker Points list. He walked just two batters in 26 2/3 innings, and allowed just one home run. Lively pitched well in his first start, striking out seven and walking one in five innings.

Another pitcher doing well with Cy Young Points, Paul Blackburn, leads the Athletics against the Yankees and Marcus Stroman. Blackburn, with a high .315 BABIP for his career, held opponents to a .239 mark so far in 2024. Stroman owns a .250 opposition BABIP, important for him since he does not strikeout a ton of batters.

Finally, Luis Severino of the Mets battles Logan Webb of the Giants. A good number of batters reached base against Severino (.319 OBP allowed), but his ERA is good as opponents hit just .130 against him with runners in scoring position. Webb continues to be good at keeping the ball in park, as he allowed just one home run in 30 2/3 innings this year.

April 23, 2024

Lots of Shutouts?

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It feels like the number of shutouts are high this season, but early in the year offense tends to be low. The majors saw 46 shutouts in 682 games, 6.74%. That’s lower than each of the previous three seasons through 26 days. The 2021 season was the highest of the 30 team era, with 59 shutouts in 658 games, 8.97%. The 2022 season came in a 7.21%, with 2023 at 7.89%. The 2024 season ranks ninth in the 30 team ERA, high, but not terribly so.

April 22, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Tigers visit the Rays with Tarik Skubal facing Zack Littell. Skubal sports a deadly combination of a high strikeout rate with a low BABIP of .207. Littell’s BABIP comes in at .361, but most of the hits against him came without runners in scoring position.

Yusei Kikuchi and Brady Singer square off in Kansas City as the Blue Jays play the Royals. Kikuchi appears to have added a curve ball to his pitches, throwing the slider less. He’s only allowed one home run as his groundball rate went up. Singer’s BABIP early in the season stands at .182, a big reason he allowed just 13 hits in 23 1/3 innings. He’s throwing more four-seam fastballs this season, giving his opponents a new look.

Enjoy!

April 21, 2024

No Starter, No Problem

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Reds staring pitcher Frankie Montas left the game after three batters due to a line drive striking him. Six Reds relievers then shutdown the Angels for 8 2/3 innings to give Cincinnati a 3-0 win. Brent Suter took the long relief role, going 3 1/3 innings. Overall, the pen gave up six hits and four walks while striking out six.

Jose Soriano starter for the Angels, and took a no-hitter into the sixth inning. He fell apart, however, allowing three runs, two more than the Reds needed.

April 21, 2024

No Blow

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The Nationals fail to blow a 6-0 lead and beat the Astros by that score on Sunday afternoon. Mitchell Parker made his second career start and shutout the Houston dynasty for seven innings. He allowed three hits and no walks while he struck out eight, gaining his second win.

The offense picked up eleven hits, ten of them singles. Even Nick Senzel‘s home run was a solo shot.

Washington is now just one game under.500, and the starting pitching is coming around. They own a 2.66 ERA in their last nine starts, and that includes three against the Dodgers and three against the Astros.

April 21, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Rays finish their series at the Yankees with Aaron Civale facing Luis Gil. He’s done a good job of keeping opponents off base with four walks and 17 hits allowed in 23 innings. That helped mitigate the five home runs he allowed. Gil is a bit of an opposite. He walked a batter an inning this season (14), but only allowed six hits and no home runs for a reasonable 3.86 ERA.

The Diamondbacks and Giants send Merrill Kelly and Jordan Hicks to the mound. Kelly ranks eighth in the majors in ERA since the start of the 2023 season. His high strikeout rate helps him limit hits. Hicks adjusted to the starting role well, with a 1.57 ERA after four starts in 2024. His K rate dropped, but his walk and HR rates also dropped to compensate. He is using a split finger pitch more while reducing the use of his sinker.

The Sunday night game features Michael Lorenzen of the Rangers taking on Darius Vines of the Braves. Lorenzen make his second start of the season after five shutout innings in his first appearance. Vines, in 25 MLB innings, owns a 3.60 ERA despite rather poor three-true outcomes. FanGraphs puts his xFIP at 5.51 and his FIP at 4.69. He held opponents to a 3 for 20 with runners in scoring position.

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April 20, 2024

Wheeler Dealing

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Zack Wheeler of the Phillies just finished six no-hit innings against the White Sox. He walked a batter and hit a batter, and the Phillies are up 5-0 in the middle of the sixth. So far, in this turn through the rotation, Phillies starters allowed 17 hits and two runs, one earned, in 35 1/3 innings.

Update: Wheeler walks the lead-off hitter in the seventh, but gets the next three to keep the no-hitter intact. He is now at 101 pitches for the game, and the Phillies extended their lead to 7-0. We’ll see if Wheeler emerges for the eighth.

Update: With one out in the seventh inning, Korey Lee of the White Sox singles past Bryce Harper for the first Chicago hit of the game. Wheeler leaves, leading 9-0. The starters have now allowed 18 hits in 36 2/3 innings this time through the rotation.

Update: The runner doesn’t score, so the two runs, one earned, stands.

April 20, 2024

The Hurt Hurt

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Eight and two thirds innings into his major league career, Kyle Hurt* of the Dodgers goes on the illjured list.

*No relation to Frank Thomas.

The Los Angeles Dodgers placed right-hander Kyle Hurt on the 15-day injured list Saturday because of right shoulder inflammation.

The move is retroactive to Wednesday. In a corresponding move, the Dodgers recalled left-hander Nick Ramirez from Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Hurt, 25, made his first start in the major leagues on Tuesday, and in three games this season is 0-1 with a 1.35 ERA, one walk and three strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.

ESPN.com

I hope he’s not hurt too long, even though he’s Hurt for life.

April 20, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Astros take on the Nationals with Ronel Blanco facing Trevor Williams. Blanco allowed just six hits in 21 innings, and he’s not blowing away batters with strikeouts. Note the big change for his this season is a reduced dependency on the slider in favor of the change up. His better mix of these two pitches made each more effective. Williams has yet to allow a home run this season in 15 2/3 innings. Home runs were one of his weaknesses.

Aces square off in Kansas City as the Orioles send Corbin Burnes against Cole Ragans. Burnes fooled a lot of batters this season as he struck out 25 and walked only four in 23 2/3 innings. Ragans has yet to win a game despite his 1.93 ERA. Twice he pitched at least six shutout innings only to get a no-decision. One of those game was against Burnes. Ragans left with a 3-0 lead only to see the Royals bullpen allow four runs for the loss.

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April 19, 2024 April 19, 2024

No Bull

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Spencer Turnbull of the Phillies just finished six no-hit innings against the White Sox. He walked one batter and struck out six, throwing 79 pitches so far. The Phillies lead the game 7-0, so Turnbull can try for the no-no without any pressure to keep the game close.

Update: Gavin Sheets breaks up the no-hitter with a single with one out in the seventh inning. Turnbull stays in the game.

April 19, 2024

Games of the Day

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Justin Verlander of the Astros returns to the mound Friday night against the Nationals and MacKenzie Gore. Verlander allowed fourteen hits in seven minor league innings during his rehabilitation assignment, but his three true outcomes were good. He struck out nine, walked two, and allowed one home run. I suspect the Astros were looking more at how the speed and spin of his pitches compare to him healthy. The Astros starting staff this season ranks poorly as a whole, so even a reduced Verlander should help. Gore is starting to show signs of the pitcher the Nationals hoped he would be. He struck out 23 in 16 innings so far with just one run allowed.

The Blue Jays travel to San Diego as Yariel Rodriguez takes on Matt Waldron. Rodriguez comes off a mixed MLB debut in which he allowed a lot of base runners, but only one run. His pitch count went up high quickly, which is why he lasted just 3 2/3 innings. Waldron also put a number of batters on base, but generates a lot of outs once ducks are on the pond. The opposition owns a .281 OBP with men on base.

Enjoy!

April 17, 2024

Outs for Houck

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Tanner Houck pitches the first complete game of his career and the first for the Red Sox in almost two years as he shuts out the Guardians 2-0. Houck threw just 94 pitches, 69 for strikes, and did not issue a walk as the game took just 1:49. Houck got the ball, threw the ball, and kept finding the strike zone. It was a very impressive performance.

Houck’s ERA drops to 1.35 as the Red Sox continue to get outstanding starting pitching.

April 17, 2024

Games of the Day

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It’s an unusual Wednesday as the latest start comes at 7 PM EDT. If you’re a baseball aficionado, you can spend from noon on watching games and still get to bed at a decent hour on the east coast.

Steven Matz leads the Cardinals against Paul Blackburn and the Athletics. Matz eschewed the three true outcomes so far this season, with eight strikeouts, three walks, and one home run allowed in 15 innings. While his ERA stands at 1.06, three of the six runs he allowed were unearned. Blackburn allowed no runs of any kind in his first 19 innings this season. He too comes in with low K, BB, and HR rates, so look for the defenses to get a lot of action this afternoon.

Andrew Abbott and the Reds face Bryce Miller and the Mariners. Abbott continues today’s trend of good results on higher ball in play rates, as he and the defense held batters to a .250 BABIP in 2024. Miller finally breaks the mold with 17 K in 18 1/3 innings, six walks and two home runs allowed. He allowed just 12 hits for a 1.96 ERA.

Finally, Reid Detmers and Zack Littell square off in St. Petersburg as the Angels battle the Rays. Detmers reduced his percentage of fly balls this season, leading to no home runs allowed. Most of the damage against Littell this year came with the bases empty, which is why the hits against him haven’t hurt his ERA much.

Enjoy!

April 16, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Giants continue their series at the Marlins with Jordan Hicks against Ryan Weathers. So far, the conversion of Hicks from a reliever to a starter worked well. He pitched eighteen innings in three starts with 1.00 ERA. His strikeout rate is way down, but so is his walk rate. Weathers allowed a .369 OBP so far this season, but the opposition is slugging just .352 against him, so those base runners don’t move very far.

Carlos Rodon faces Yusei Kikuchi as the Yankees and Blue Jays meet under Skydome. Rodon returned to form with a 2.87 ERA through three starts, making it a bit easier for the Yankees to absorb the Gerrit Cole injury. Kikuchi is blowing batters away with twenty strikeouts in his first 15 2/3 innings.

The Cubs play at the Diamondbacks, with rookie Michael Busch on a five-game home run streak. At high altitude in Phoenix, it’s a good day to extend the streak to six.

Dylan Cease leads the Padres against Wade Miley and the Brewers in Milwaukee. Cease comes into the game with a 2.16 ERA as he maintained his high strikeout rate while lowering his walk and home run rates to well below his career averages. Miley did not strike out a batter in his first four innings of work, but used the Milwaukee defense to allow just one hit.

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April 15, 2024

Lots of Walks

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It struck me that the six runs the Padres scored on fourteen walks Sunday night against the Dodgers seemed low. Looking at all games from 2021 on, the linear regression provides the formula runs = (0.55 * Walks) + 2.73. So normally we would expect 10 runs scored in such a game. For the most part, that has not been the case. In that time there were four games with 13 or 14 walks, and the runs scored in those games were 4. 5, 6, and 7. There was also a 17 walk game that led to 17 runs. This makes me wonder if sometimes high walk games are more about the defensive use of the outcome, walking tough hitters to reach one who are easier to put out.

April 15, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Yankees visit the Blue Jays in an early AL East battle. As expected, the division is a good one, with the Toronto in last place with a .500 record, four games behind New York. Luis Gil takes on Chris Bassitt. Gil is off to a good start in many ways, allowing just three hits in nine innings of work. He walked seven batters however, but his fourteen K means that there’s little chance of them advancing. Bassitt has yet to find his groove, as he allowed 20 hits and nine walks in his 16 innings, both well above his career norms.

The Braves meet the Astros in Houston with Darius Vines making his 2024 debut against Spencer Arrighetti. Vines posted good three-true outcomes in his minor league career, although his K rate dropped as he rose through the levels. The Astros are known for putting the ball in play. Arrighetti’s minor league career was marked by wildness, with 4.4 BB per nine. There could be a ton of base runners and a lot of runs in this game.

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April 14, 2024

Franken Berrios

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Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays continues to be a monster on the mound in 2024 as he pitches seven shutout innings against the Rockies on Sunday. It was no contest as Berrios allowed just two hits and two walks while striking out seven. That lowers his ERA to 1.05 in four starts. On the season, he’s not really blowing away batters, but despite a below career average K rate, opponents are hitting just .202/.276/.303 against him.

April 14, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Brewers go for a sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore, with Colin Rea facing former Milwaukee pitcher Corbin Burnes. Rea, with a rather high era over his career, comes into the game with a 1.64 mark in two 2024 starts. He only struck out five batters in his eleven innings of work, but 10 of his 12 hits allowed went for singles as the opposition is slugging .311 against him. Burnes makes his fourth start of the season, with a 1.93 ERA in 18 2/3 innings. He walked just two batters.

Cole Ragans takes on Jose Butto in the Royals at the Mets. Ragans has yet to win in three starts despite a 2.60 ERA. The Royals scored a total of eight runs in the three starts. So far in Butto’s MLB career, he generated a high walk rate, but makes up for it by keeping hits low.

The Rangers and Astros play the rubber game of their series with Nathan Eovaldi opposing Cristian Javier. Eovaldi sits 1-0 in three starts, but owns a 1.45 ERA. He allowed just eleven hits for four walks in 18 2/3 innings. Javier showed wildness with nine walks issued in 16 1/3 innings, but batters are just 5 for 27 against him with men on base.

Finally, Yu Darvish of the Padres visits James Paxton of the Dodgers in the Sunday night game. Darvish pitched well in his career against the Dodgers without good results. He owns a 2.27 ERA in thirteen starts, but just a 4-5 record. Paxton owns a 1.84 ERA in four starts against San Diego, but this is his first start against them as a Dodger.

Enjoy!

April 13, 2024

Tibia Return

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Nick Lodolo returned to the Reds rotation on Saturday after a tibia injury caused him to miss most of 2023. He pitched briefly but brilliantly against the White Sox, holding them to one hit while striking out ten in 5 2/3 inning. The Reds went on to win the game 5-0. The Reds bullpen did as well, as Chicago batters ended the game with two hits and 15 strikeouts. White sox batters now own 87 hits and 120 strikeouts on the season.

Update: We have video of Lodolo’s rehab:

April 13, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Royals meet the Mets for game two of their series with Alec Marsh facing Sean Manaea. Marsh needs to improve his walk and strikeout rates from his rookie season of 2023. These categories look better so far as he walked two and kept the ball in the park in his first 11 2/3 innings. Manaea allowed just one run in his eleven innings of work, combining a high K rate with an extremely low BABIP of .190.

The Pirates and Phillies continue the battle of Pennsylvania with Marco Gonzales taking the hill against Spencer Turnbull. With both a low rates in strikeouts and walks, the Pittsburgh defense backs up Gonzales to the tune of a .265 opposition BABIP. Turnbull turned up his three true outcomes in his first two starts, with no home runs and one walk allowed in his first eleven innings, and thirteen strikeouts.

Chris Sale of the Braves takes on Max Meyer of the Marlins. Sale appears to be returning to his glory days, as his averages after two starts are very close to his career norms. That would be huge boost for the Braves given their pitching injuries this season. Meyer allowed just five hits in eleven innings, and his ERA would be even lower if two of those weren’t home runs.

Enjoy!

April 12, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Angels visit the Red Sox with Reid Detmers facing Tanner Houck. Both are off to great starts with Detmers striking out 19 batters in eleven innings, Houck, 17 batters in 12 innings. Houck has yet to allow a run. There is the chance of rain in Boston.

The red hot Royals appropriately play in Queens. Michael Wacha takes on the Mets and Luis Severino. Unlike recent seasons, Wacha is keeping the ball on the ground, and the Royals defense is turning those into outs. He allowed just five hits and two walks in 12 innings in 2024. Severino’s high strikeout rate has not prevented hits this season, but it helped keep his ERA low at 3.60.

Enjoy!

April 11, 2024

Games of the Day

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The Twins open a series in Detroit in an unusual Thursday day game to begin a four-game set. Minnesota sits 2 1/2 games behind the third place Tigers in the AL Central. Pablo Lopez takes on Tarik Skubal. Lopez comes into the game with a 2.84 ERA having allowed just one home run and one walk in 12 2/3 innings. Skubal, with a 2.92 ERA, allowed two home runs and two walks in 12 1/3 innings.

The Orioles send Grayson Rodriguez against the Red Sox and Garrett Whitlock. The Orioles are now 1/2 game ahead of Boston, as the teams rank 2-3 in the AL East. Rodriguez is blowing away batters this season with 16 K and just three walks in 12 1/3 innings. All three runs he allowed came on solo home runs. Whitlock allows a high BABIP, .305 for his career, but makes up for it somewhat with a high K rate. That resulted in a 3.40 career ERA in 232 2/3 innings.

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April 10, 2024

Games of the Day

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The White Sox send Erick Fedde against the Guardians and Tanner Bibee. Fedde’s career profile is of a low strikeout, high walk pitcher, and his 5.35 ERA reflects that. Through his first two starts this season, his K rate is up and his walk rate is down, and he brings a 2.79 ERA into the game. Bibee is now 11-4 with a 3.03 ERA in his short career. His154 K in 151 1/3 innings represents the strongest part of his game.

Wade Miley makes his 2024 debut for the Brewers against Hunter Greene at Cincinnati. Miley posted a good ERA of 3.26 since the start of the 2021 season. He manages to limit hits despite a low K rate. Greene has yet to allow a home run this season, and long balls were his big weakness coming into the season.

Finally, Ross Stripling of the Athletics faces Cody Bradford of the Rangers. Stripling lost both of his starts, but he pitched well enough, allowing six runs, five earned in twelve innings. Bradford won both his starts and comes in with a 2.13 ERA. He allowed just five hits and one walk in 12 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

April 9, 2024

Games of the Day

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Boston plays the final home opener of the season as the Orioles send ace Corbin Burnes against ace hopeful Brayan Bello. Burnes is off to a great start. His 2.31 ERA is less than his FIPs, and he’s yet to walk a batter in 11 2/3 innings. Bello walked just one batter in his first ten innings this season, but three of the ten hits against him went for home runs. He is a relatively low strikeout pitcher, so the Fenway defense will need to be excellent behind him. Balls in play in that yard easily find walls.

The Astros visit the Royals with Cristian Javier facing Cole Ragans. Javier pitched around trouble so far in 2024, issuing six walks in eleven innings but not allowing a home run. He has yet to allow a run. Ragans owns a 1.46 ERA as he K’d 16 batters in 12 1/3 innings in 2024.

Enjoy!