Category Archives: Games

May 16, 2024

Games of the Day

The Yankees go for a sweep of the Twins as Clarke Schmidt takes on Joe Ryan in Minneapolis. Schmidt owns a 2.95 ERA, partially due to the Yankees not allowing him to go deep in games. He pitched just 42 2/3 innings in eight starts. Schmidt owns decent three-true outcomes. The opposition produces a high BABIP against him, but Schmidt seems to be able to get the double play grounder even though I would not classify him as a groundball pitcher. Ryan ranks fourth in the majors in walks per 9 IP. He will be a challenge for the Yankees, who are very good at taking pitches. Their batters lead the AL in walks with 177, 30 more than any other team in the league.

The Rays and Red Sox finish their four-game series, with the Fenway faithful hoping for a split. Zack Littell faces Cooper Criswell. Littell shows great control with 45 K and just seven walks in 44 2/3 innings. Criswell is right there with Littell, with 25 K and 5 walks in 25 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

May 15, 2024

One Two Punch

For the second time in a row, Erick Fedde and Garrett Crochet make back-to-back scoreless starts, as the White Sox defeat the Nationals 2-0 Wednesday afternoon. The Chicago rotation is looking pretty good as they own a 1.81 ERA in their last eight starts, Fedde and Crochet combing for 24 scoreless innings. The starters are 5-1 in that stretch.

May 15, 2024

Games of the Day

Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Bradish square off as the Blue Jays play and early game in Baltimore. The Orioles knocked around Kikuchi in his career, tagging him for eleven home runs in 49 2/3 innings. Bradish brings a 1.86 ERA into the game, having struck out 14 batters in 9 2/3 innings.

The Rockies send Austin Gomber against the Padres and Michael King. Gomber pitched well this season, and held San Diego to one run in five innings in Colorado earlier this year. King strikes out a lot of batters, but that is tempered by high walk and home run rates.

The Cubs send Javier Assad against the Braves and Charlie Morton. Assad, in his third season, owns a very respectable 10-5 record with a 2.76 ERA. He does a great job of limiting hits despite not overpowering batters with Ks. He just passed 2000 innings for his career, ranking 41st with most innings pitched this century.

Enjoy!

May 14, 2024

Matching Starters

Ryan Weathers of the Marlins and Reese Olson of the Tigers matched each other for eight innings, each allowing three hits, no walks, and no runs. Strikeouts were the only difference between the two as Olson K’d six and Weathers fanned four.

Weathers lowered his ERA to 3.81, Olson to 2.09.

The game went scoreless into the tenth, when the visiting Marlins scored on a Jesus Sanchez single. That was all that was needed as Miami wins 1-0. That’s tide for the second lowest closeness score* of the season.

*Average score difference at the end of each half inning.

May 14, 2024

Complete Nola

Aaron Nola pitched a shutout for the Phillies as they beat Mets 4-0. He was perfect through five innings and finished the game with four hits, no walks, and eight strikeouts.

It is the eighth complete game of the season, with five of those resulting in shutouts. Almost all the pitchers who finished what they started own low ERAs. Nola reduced his to 3.10 today.

Complete games are still down, however. Through this date a year ago ten were recorded. I suspect the high quality pitchers on illjured list may be contributing to the drop in CGs.

May 13, 2024

Owning a Pitcher

Adley Rutschman of the Orioles goes two for three against Jose Berrios of the Blue Jays, both hits home runs. Rutschman came into the game 10 for 16 in his career against Berrios with two doubles, a home run, two walks and no strikeouts. It’s tough to be much better than12 for 19 with a .667 OBP that in a head-to-head matchup.

It wasn’t enough for the Orioles, however, as the Blue Jays take the game 3-2 in ten innings.

May 13, 2024

Games of the Day

The Blue Jays visit the Orioles with Jose Berrios and his 2.85 ERA opposing Corbin Burnes and his 2.83 ERA. Berrios allowed a .225 opposition BA with a .307 OBP, but those drop to .133/.257 with runners in scoring position. Burnes has yet to induce a double play grounder this season, but part of that is holding batters to a .247 OBP.

The undefeated Shota Imanaga leads the Cubs into Atlanta against the Braves and Reynaldo Lopez. Imanaga owns a 1.08 ERA as he is great at preventing long hits. Only five of the 29 hits against have gone for extra bases. Lopez uses double plays to remove base runners, as he induced 5 GDPs in 11 opportunities.

Enjoy!

May 12, 2024

Games of the Day

The Diamondbacks and Orioles start the days games in Baltimore as Zac Gallen takes on Dean Kremer. Gallen stands send in wins in the majors since the start of the 2023 season. His 3.02 ERA in that time goes along with an outstanding set of three-true outcome rates. Kremer managed to limit line drives this season to 12.5% of batted balls, which seems like a very tough number to maintain.

The Nationals play at Fenway with MacKenzie Gore facing Brayan Bello. Gore makes just his third road start of the season. He allowed two runs in ten innings away from Washington with 18 K and just two walks. Bello abandoned the four-seam fastball this season, using his change up and slider more.

The Reds and Giants match-up on the west coast as Frankie Montas battles Kyle Harrison. Montas is averaging a little over four innings per game as he works his way back from shoulder surgery. Harrison cuts his ERA by almost a run compared to his first MLB season in 2023. Last year he gave up eight home runs in 34 2/3 innings, this year he allowed five home runs in 45 innings.

Enjoy!

May 11, 2024

Doubles and Triples

The Orioles beat the visiting Diamondbacks 5-4 in eleven innings. The box score showed Kevin Newman of Arizona and Ryan Mountcastle of Baltimore each hit a double and a triple in the game. I wondered how unusual this is. The Day by Day Database goes back to 1920, and in that time, this was the 601st game with at least two players having a double and a triple. It was also the third this season. In that same time frame, at least three players accomplish this in the same game 20 times.

One of those games was above three. On May 16, 1921, Washington visited Detroit, the Tigers taking the game 17-11. Five hitters in that game hit both a double and a triple, including Ty Cobb. Chick Shorten and Bert Cole joined Cobb on the Detroit side, while Duffy Lewis and Joe Judge delivered for Washington.

May 11, 2024

Games of the Day

Justin Steele pitches in the Steel City as the Cubs face the Pirates, Paul Skenes making his major league debut. Steele allowed six hits and two walks in his first two starts covering 9 1/3 innings, leading to just one run. You can’t swing a dead cat without running into a story about Skenes potential greatness. At seasonal age 22, Skenes gets called up after 34 minor league innings in which he posted a 2.12 ERA. 27 1/3 of those innings coming at AAA. If we focus on AAA, he struck out 45 batters, walked eight, and allowed just one home run. Batters managed 17 hits against him.

A big caveat in my opinion is that Skenes was not allowed to go deep in games. He made seven starts at triple A, averaging not quite four inning per start. So he never got the chance to tire in a game. The Pirates addressed this in the ESPN article:

“We’d rather have the majority of the volume available to him be in the major leagues and not the minor leagues,” Cherington said. “Managing the volume progression early so it’s building more slowly than an established major league starter’s would, but in a way where we’re not using an unnecessary number of innings in the minor leagues.”

ESPN.com

This is the most anticipated debut since Stephen Strasburg made his first start against the Pirates 14 years ago.

Undefeated pitchers battle in Detroit as Cristian Javier of the Astros takes on Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Javier stands 2-0 in four starts with a 1.54 ERA. His Ks are low and his walks high, but he avoided base hits with just 15 allowed in 23 1/3 innings. Skubal is also tough to hit, but blows away batters with few walks, helping him to a 1.90 ERA. Different methods, similar results.

The Royals battle in the heat of an excellent AL Central race as they send Cole Ragans against the Angels and Tyler Anderson. Ragans’ ERA improved just a little despite better rates in all three-true outcomes. That suggests a bit of bad luck, so look for his ERA to come down a bit if he can keep that up. Anderson is way at the opposite end of the spectrum, with an ERA two runs below his FIP.

Enjoy!

May 10, 2024

Games of the Day

The Cubs travel to Pittsburgh as Javier Assad takes on Jared Jones. Assad’s 1.66 ERA ranks third in the NL and second on the Cubs to the 1.08 mark of Shota Imanaga. Jones is off to a great start in his rookie season, with 52 strikeouts and just five walks in 41 innings.

Joe Ryan leads the hot Twins agains the Blue Jays and Yusei Kikuchi. Ryan pitched better than his 3.54 ERA, with 10.2 K per 9 IP and 1.3 BB per 9 IP. Three of the five home runs he allowed came with men on base. Kikuchi lowered his walk rate last year, and now with a lower home run rate to go with it brought his ERA under 3.00.

Andrew Abbott faces Logan Webb as the Reds play in San Francisco. Batters are finding it tougher to hit line drives against Abbott this season, leading to nearly a 50 point drop in his BABIP. Webb’s low K rate and high BABIP have not hurt him much this season as he greatly reduced his home runs allowed.

Enjoy!

May 9, 2024

Game of the Day

Ronel Blanco of the Astros takes on Marcus Stroman of the Yankees in a late afternoon game in The Bronx. Blanco owns a 2.09 ERA in six starts, holding the opposition to just 21 hits in 38 2/3 innings. Six of the nine runs he allowed came off the four home runs batters hit against him. Stroman continues to be great with runners in scoring position, allowing a .143 BA in the situation this season. That makes his ERA reasonable despite an overall .342 OBP allowed.

Enjoy!

May 8, 2024 May 8, 2024 May 8, 2024

Games of the Day

The Padres battle the Cubs in Chicago with Dylan Cease and Hayden Wesneski on the mound. Cease owns a 2.55 ERA with only two home runs allowed in 42 1/3 innings. That raised him to tenth place in the Bill James Starting Pitcher Rankings. After giving up 20 home runs in 89 1/3 innings in 2023, Wesneski kept the ball in the park for his first 16 2/3 innings of 2024.

The Orioles and Nationals offer another compelling pitching matchup as Kyle Bradish faces Mitchell Parker. The Nationals moved one game over .500 with the win on Tuesday, and are tied for the third Wild Card slot in the NL. Bradish makes his second start since returning from a UCL sprain. He allowed one run in 4 1/3 innings in his debut, following on nicely from his 2023 season. The rookie Parker keeps hits to singles as the opposition slugs just .275 against him.

Finally, the Red Sox send Nick Pivetta against a pitcher they let go, Chris Sale. Pivetta pitched just eleven innings in 2024, but they were high quality as he allowed just eight hits and one run, walking one and striking out 13. Sale seems healthy again, 4-1 in six starts with a 3.44 ERA. Most telling, he struck out 42 batters in 36 2/3 innings

Enjoy!

May 7, 2024

Games of the Day

Jose Berrios tries to stop the red hot Phillies as the Blue Jays face Cristopher Sanchez. Berrios leads the AL with a 1.44 ERA. Sanchez allowed just one home run in 29 1/3 innings.

The battle of the beltway pits Corbin Burnes of the Orioles against Trevor Williams of the Nationals. Burnes brings a 2.61 ERA into the game, having walked just nine batters in 41 1/3 innings. Williams does him a bit better with a 2.27 ERA. He only struck out 22 batters in 31 2/3 innings, but has not allowed a home run.

The Red Sox visit the Braves with Kutter Crawford and Reynaldo Lopez on the mound, both with sub 2.00 ERAs. Crawford allowed just 30 hits in 40 1/3 innings, holding opponents to a .201 BA. Lopez is at .190, allowing 20 hits in 30 innings.

Finally Colin Rea and Seth Lugo matchup as the Brewers visit the Royals. Rea allowed five home runs in 33 2/3 innings, but with a .292 OBP, only one of those came with men on base. Lugo holds opponents to a .215 BA thanks in part to a .246 BABIP.

Enjoy!

May 6, 2024

Games of the Day

The Padres visit the Cubs with Yu Darvish facing Justin Steele. Darvish averaged less that five inning per start this season, but he did spend two weeks on the illjured list. He pitched five shutout inning in his return on April 30th. Steele make his first start since March after suffering a hamstring injury. He’s 24-16 in his career with a 3.28 ERA and excellent rates in his three true outcomes.

Bryse Wilson takes on Cole Ragans as Milwaukee travels to Kansas City. Wilson joined the Brewers in 2023. In mostly relief, he is 8-1 with a 2.68 ERA. He doesn’t blow batters away, but he does limit hits. Ragans allowed just one home run in his 36 2/3 innings this season.

Enjoy!

May 5, 2024

Pirates Order

The Pirates beat the Rockies 5-3 Sunday afternoon. In first looking at the Pittsburgh batting order, the lack of power stood out to me. On second glance, however, the management does a good job by simply order the batters by decreasing OBP one through eight, then putting a decent OBP in the ninth slot to give Connor Joe and Bryan Reynolds someone to drive in. This worked today as Joe and Reynolds reached base three times and scored twice, while the heart of the order generated three extra base hits and four RBI.

The Pirates offense isn’t very good, but the batting order at least allows them to make the most out of their best hitters.

May 5, 2024

Games of the Day

The Tigers send Tarik Skubal against the Yankees and Nestor Cortes. Skubal’s ERA of 1.72 comes from dropping his ERA about a run every year since his rookie season of 2020. Over time, he lowered both his walk and home run rates. This season, his FIPs are about the same as last year, but in 2023 his ERA was higher, this year it’s lower as things balance out. Cortes reduced his walk rate in 2024 to 1.5 per 9 IP, about a walk per nine lower than his career average.

The Twins go for their thirteenth win a row as they host the Red Sox. Cooper Criswell faces Joe Ryan. Criswell brings a 1.63 ERA into his fifth appearance of the season. With low strikeout and K rates, batters put the ball in play against him, but so far those balls in play led to a low .250 BABIP. Batters failed to get a high launch angle against Ryan this season, which led to a lower rate of home runs allowed. He deemphasized his four seam fastball this year to throw more changeups.

Finally, Freddy Peralta leads the Brewer against the Cubs and Javier Assad. Peralta is working on his best combination of three-true outcomes of his career. That reflected in his xFIP of 2.95, which would be the lowest season mark for his career. Assad owns a 1.97 ERA after six starts. He held batters to a .205/.264/.277 slash line, which goes down to .105/.130/.105 with men in scoring position.

Enjoy!

May 4, 2024 May 4, 2024

Jones for Pitching

Jared Jones continued his excellent rookie season for the Pirates by allowing just one hit over seven inning in the 1-0 Pittsburgh win over the Rockies. The Pirates did not score until the bottom of the ninth, so Jones did not get the win. He walked none and struck out 10, and the bullpen followed up with two perfect innings as the Rockies only sent 28 men to the plate.

Jones lowered his ERA to 2.63. He pitched 41 innings in his seven starts with 27 hits allowed, 52 strikeouts, and just five walks. If he can keep this up, not only will he be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, but could by looking at a Cy Young Award as well.

Jones walked batters at a higher rate in the minors, while his strikeout rate was about the same. If someone on the Pirates MLB staff, helped with the walk issue, that coach should get a nice bonus.

May 4, 2024

Games of the Day

Kenton Winn faced undefeated Ranger Suarez as the Giants play the Phillies. Winn is up to 76 1/3 MLB innings. He kept batters off base, allowing just a .281 OBP. Note that with six doubles plays induced and base stealer going five for five with one pickoff, his effective OBP is somewhat lower. Suarez comes in 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA. He is able to go deep in games as he averages 13.6 pitches per inning.

Logan Gilbert and Framber Valdez battle in Houston as the Mariners try to drive the Astros deeper into a hole. Gilbert owns a winning history against Houston, 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA in nine starts. Valdez is even better against Seattle, 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA in twelve appearances.

The Braves and Dodgers continue their series with Bryce Elder and Tyler Glasnow on the mound. Elder limits hits despite a low strikeout rate, and has not allowed a home run in his first 12 innings this season. Glasnow struck out 53 batters in 43 innings this season, leading to just 28 hits allowed.

Enjoy!

May 3, 2024 May 3, 2024

Games of the Day

The Giants move to Philadelphia as Jordan Hicks faces Aaron Nola. Hicks saw his K rate drop this season, but so did his walk and home run rates. Despite the drop in Ks, he’s still doing a great job preventing hits. The Phillies starters are so good that Nola’s 3.20 ERA is only fourth best in the group.

Reese Olson of the Tigers takes on Marcus Stroman of the Yankees, the two teams tied in the loss column at 13. The teams are currently ranked one and three in the wild card race, the Yankees with two more wins. Olson stands as one of three pitchers with at least 20 IP with zero home runs allowed. Stroman’s walk rate of 4.26 per 9 IP would be the highest in a season for his career. His ERA is still good due to a .156 BA allowed with runners in scoring position.

The best pitching match-up of the day takes place in Arizona where Dylan Cease of the Padres battles Slade Cecconi. Cease allowed just 17 hits in 35 2/3 innings, thanks in part to 40 strikeouts. Cecconi allowed five hits in 12 innings over his first two starts, striking out 11. With all the whiffs, they may not need to air condition the ballpark tonight!

Enjoy!

May 2, 2024

Games of the Day

The Yankees and Orioles finish their four game series in Baltimore, with the Yankees trying come away with a 2-2 split. Carlos Rodon is set to face Kyle Bradish of the Orioles, although the Orioles starter was not officially announced. Rodon returned to being a tough pitcher as far as home runs are concerned, but his high walk rate and lower K rate indicate his 2.48 ERA is better than expected. Bradish returns from an elbow injury. In 2023, he improved all aspects of his game to lower his ERA two runs from his rookie year.

The Nationals send Mitchell Parker against the Rangers and veteran Nathan Eovaldi. Nationals starters are on a bit of a roll, with a 2.78 ERA in their last thirteen games. The group allowed just three home runs. Parker made two of those starts and allowed one run in eleven innings. Eovaldi walked seventeen batters in 36 innings this season, a rate that is very high given his career rate of 2.63 BB per 9 IP. It hasn’t hurt him that much so far, but might if it were to continue much longer.

Enjoy!

May 1, 2024 April 30, 2024

Flaherty Record

Jack Flaherty of the Tigers tied an AL record by striking out the first seven batters of his former team, the Cardinals.

Flaherty matched the record shared by Joe Cowley (1986 White Sox), Carlos Rodon (2016 White Sox), Blake Snell (2018 Rays) and Luis Castillo (2022 Mariners).

Miami Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez set the major league record by striking out the first nine batters of a game in 2021.

ESPN.com

Flaherty wound up striking out fourteen batters in 6 2/3 shutout innings, but the Tigers could not defend a 1-0 lead as the Cardinals scored twice in the top of the ninth inning to win game one of the doubleheader.

April 30, 2024

Games of the Day

The Cubs continue their series against the Mets with Javier Assad taking on Sean Manaea. Assad is not only tough to hit, with a .194 BA allowed, but he limits power, too, with a .280 slugging percentage allowed. Manaea upped his K rate this season while maintaining an excellent walk rate.

MacKenzie Gore and Jon Gray battle in Texas as the Nationals visit the Rangers. Gore improved all three of his true outcome rates this season, knocking his ERA down over a run from his career average. Gray’s strikeouts are through the roof this season, but his BABIP allowed ballooned to .354. Even though he allowed a good number of base runners, the Ks keep them from advancing very much.

Finally, Spencer Turnbull and the Phillies face Tyler Anderson and the Angels, both starters entering the game with sub 2.00 ERAs.

Enjoy!

April 29, 2024

Severino-no

Luis Severino of the Mets comes out for the top of the seventh inning against the Cubs with a no-hitter intact. He walked one and struck out five so far throwing 69 pitches. the Mets lead 1-0.

Update: Severino hits the lead-off batter, but a pop out double play finishes the inning without a hit.

Update: Dansby Swanson breaks up the no-hitter in the eighth inning.

April 29, 2024

Games of the Day

The Yankees and Orioles meet in Baltimore, New York leading the Birds by one game in the AL East. Clarke Schmidt faces Grayson Rodriguez. Schmidt is off to a good start with a 3.55 ERA, striking out 29 batters in 25 1/3 innings. Rodriguez’s run support per 9 IP, 4.55 is a tiny bit better than his 4.45 ERA, but he’s turned that into a 3-0 record.

On the west coast, the Reds take on Padres with Nick Lodolo battling Matt Waldron. Lodolo has yet to allow a home run in 17 innings after giving up 10 in 34 1/3 innings in 2023. Waldron held batters this season to a low .379 slugging percentage.

Enjoy!