LenNY’s Yankees responds to an article at The Faster Times on Francisco Cervelli’s clutch hitting. From the Times article:
This year, for example, Yankee catcher Francisco Cervelli has proven far better in the clutch than in other situations. While it is very likely that this type of clutch hitting will either stop sometime soon or fail to carry over into next season, That does not mean it has not existed this year.
Every year there will be a few players like Cervelli who will hit particularly well in clutch situations, some will even continue to do this in the post-season. This is almost a mathematical inevitability due to the large number of players, expected deviations in performance and the role of luck in baseball. Unless it is repeated over time, however, it is difficult to meaningfully define a few clutch hits as being due to a player being a genuinely better hitter in the clutch.
Len’s responses, after reading Kevin Long say Cervelli siezes the moment:
I think Long describes clutch hitting perfectly here. Broadcasters will toss around that term loosely, but isn’t being “clutch” really just seizing the moment?
One of the great problems with talking about clutch hitting is defining clutch. Any situation you can describe, I can probably find a subset of that situation that isn’t clutch. Cervelli is 20 for 65 with men in scoring position, but how many of those situations were really ones that turned a game around? Leading off an inning can be a clutch situation, especially if the game is close. Getting on base greatly increases a team’s chance of winning. With none on and none out, Cervelli’s OBP is .255. He doesn’t start rallies. Fellow blogger Cy Morong likes the close and late situation as a clutch measurement. Cervelli is 5 for 27, with a .185/.290/.222 slash line (3 hit by pitches accout for the much higher OBP). That’s hardly clutch.
What all these situations have in common are small sample sizes. Whenever we eliminate plate appearances from a player’s record, we increase the chance that we’ll see a large variation from his true average. Long term, the best hitters are the clutch hitters, simply because the good hitters stay around long enough for the clutch samples to revert to the player’s mean. Cervelli is an okay hitter for a catcher. With lots of people on base in front of him, some of his hits are going to fall at opportune times. Next season, or even later this season, he may not get the breaks.
Point taken. Over small sample sizes, a lot of players could be considered clutch. But over the course of a player’s career, these so called “clutch situation” statistics usually level out to their normal career averages.
Watching the games I’ve noticed that with no one on base (regardless of outs) pitchers seem to pitch differently to Cervelli. As I like to say, they get “cute” with their pitching and try to get him to chase. In turn, he swings at pitches he shouldn’t. With guys on base, it seems they take a stance of “don’t walk the only guy on the team without a homerun” and he’s a pretty darn good hitter when it’s over the plate.
I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before someone realizes they can throw him stuff just off the corners and get him out. He’s not a dangerous hitter, but he’s a major league hitter– he’ll hit it if you leave it over the plate.
@Jesse R: That’s a good point, Jesse. I haven’t seen him enough to know that this is true, but I suspect they go after him with fastballs with men on base. Maybe the PITCH f/x experts can verify that.