April 22, 2014

The .411 on Blackmon

Charlie Blackmon hit two home runs and drew a walk Monday night as the Rockies hammered the Giants 8-2. The 2 for 4 night left Blackmon with a league leading .411 BA, a .450 OBP, and a .671 slugging percentage. All but three of those plate appearances came from the lead-off slot (he’s 2 for 5 as a pinch hitter).

When someone gets off to a hot start, the best reason is small sample size. As we see with Freddie Freeman, changes that could lead to a .400 BA can disappear quickly. Blackmon, like Freeman, showed the same type of changes.

  • Blackmon owns a very good career BABIP, and his BABIP stands at .400 this season.
  • BABIP is a theoretical limit on batting average. If a player never strikes out nor hits hits home runs, his batting average will be his BABIP. In order for a player to push his BA above his BABIP, he needs a high ratio of home runs to strikeouts. Blackmon hit four home runs with just five strikeouts so far. He’s hitting home runs at a higher rate while striking out at a much lower rate.
  • Whereas Freeman has yet to reach his prime, Blackmon plays 2014 as a 27 year-old, the best age for a career season. In fact, Blackmon was born on July 1, the day ages change, so he’s the oldest 27 year old in the game. (In general, players born in the second half of the year do better than players born in the first half of the year, since they tend to be able to dominate younger players growing up.)
  • His line drive rate is slightly below his career average, so he hasn’t been doing anything special hitting the ball square. He’s making more contact and finding holes.
  • He played a lot at Coors Field early in the year.

FanGraphs shows projections for the season with the player’s stats, and updates those throughout the season. Blackmon came into 2014 with Steamer and Zips projecting a .281 BA. Both of those are up to .301 now. It’s unlikely that this .400 BA will persist, but so far in 2014, Blackmon is doing every thing right to give himself a chance of at least winning a batting title.

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