Rob Neyer wonders if a player with Tony Gwynn‘s abilities could be a highly ranked player today. In other words, could a high average singles hitter who draws few walks break the top 12 run producers over a good span of his career?

Using Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index, we find Gwynn generating 177 Batter Runs over those six seasons, which was 12th best in the majors. All the players ahead of him hit substantially more home runs, except for Wade Boggs and Tim Raines, and of course Boggs and Raines both drew substantially more walks (and Raines stole substantially more bases). Even Rickey Henderson hit 103 home runs in those six seasons, compared to Gwynn’s paltry 43 (Boggs hit 54, Raines 67).

And if you’ll pardon the editorial aside, this is the problem with describing Gwynn as “the best hitter” of his generation: it’s true only if you define “best hitter” as best hitter for batting average.

That was 1984-1989, an era of lower offensive production. So I think the answer is yes, but only if offense continues to decline.

The Neyer article meshes nicely with this presentation on representing batting average by components, something I’ve touched on from time to time. Batting average is a combination of BABIP, strikeout rate, and home run rate. If a player is going to hit .400 again, he’ll need a high BABIP, a good number of home runs, and a low strike out rate (see Ted Williams, 1941. If Joey Votto or Mike Trout could cut their strikeout rates way down without losing power, then it’s possible. Note that Miguel Cabrera won a triple crown because he was able to cut down his Ks without losing power, allowing him to win a batting title.