March 15, 2015

Predicting Runs, 2015

The series using the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) to look at lineups is coming up. Each year I plug the projected lineup for each team into the LAT using the Marcel predictions for OBP and slugging percentage to get an idea of how the offense is set up for the season. After six years of data, the regression formula has stabilized. For this year, the formula works out to be:

Predicted Runs = 0.7479 * Probable Lineup Runs + 0.8136

For 2014, the LAT did a poor job of predicting the order of teams in runs scored per game. The correlation was just .49, meaning you could have done as well flipping a coin.

You can follow the results of the lineup analysis in this Google spreadsheet.

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