The 2015 series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers finished sixth in the majors and second in the the National League in 2014 with 4.43 runs scored per game.
I could not find updated lineups at CBSSports.com, so I am going to use a combination of RotoChamp and USA Today. In this case, I’m going with the RotoChamp lineup. The two use the same eight players, but I believe RotoChamp is updated more often. That Don Mattingly lineup is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, I used the actual numbers for the team from 2014. That information produces the following results:
Best lineup: 4.54 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.34
Worst lineup: 4.09
Regressed lineup: 4.43
The Dodgers should be an offensive powerhouse in the NL, but they are giving away runs by batting Jimmy Rollins first. The most important attribute for a lead-off hitter is his OBP, and Rollins projects to have the lowest OBP on the team among the position players. Almost all the lowest scoring lineups have the pitchers and Rollins 1-2.
The LAT likes Yasiel Puig leading off, but I could also see where that might be a waste of his power. I actually like the first lineup that has Howie Kendrick leading off. That has Puig batting second, and Yasmani Grandal, another player the LAT favors at the top of the order, batting fifth. In fact, the LAT likes the middle of Mattingly’s order.
Batting Rollins first is giving away about three wins. Let him play great defense and bat near the bottom of the order.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
Gee, I’d like to jump on the Dodgers’ bandwagon, but I have reservations. Yes, they won 94 games last year, 26 games over .500, BUT they were 24 games over .500 in their own division, 50-26. In the 86 games against everybody else, they were 44-42. That doesn’t look like a powerhouse.
If you look at the second half, it’s even more troubling. They were 54-43 at the break, 11 games over, and had to play 15 games over to get to 26 over .500. They beat the Giants 7-2 for a =5, and beat the collapsing Braves 6-1 for another +5, and the played the Diamondbacks without Goldschmidt and the manager and GM on the skids and beat them 5-0. There’s your plus 15. Against all the other teams they were 22-22.
To top it off, the three other NL playoff teams each beat them 2 of 3 for a 6-9 record. The Cubs, Rockies, Padres, and taking 3 of 4 from the Angels offset that record against the Nats, Pirates and Cards and the 1-5 record against the Brewers.
Now they’re a juggernaut after losing Kemp’s .317/17-homer/53-RBI second half, Hanley Ramirez, and Dee Gordon’s 64 steals and 92 RBI, and replacing them with a 36 year old SS, a 2B coming from the AL, and a rookie CF? I have my doubts.