March 24, 2009

Summing Up Offensive Predictions

The following table sums up the Team Offense series. In the last three columns I look at the change in scoring by subtracting the actual 2008 runs per game from the 2009 regressed runs per game, then multiplying by 162 to get the runs change over the full season, then divide that by 10 to get the expected change in wins due to the offense. It looks like the biggest changes take place in the AL West.

Team 2008 R/G 2009 Probable R/G 2009 Regressed R/G Regressed-2008 Season Runs Change Wins Change, Offense
Athletics 4.01 5.14 4.74 0.73 118 12
Nationals 3.98 4.54 4.37 0.39 63 6
Padres 3.93 4.36 4.26 0.33 53 5
Giants 3.95 4.38 4.27 0.32 52 5
Mariners 4.14 4.66 4.44 0.30 49 5
Dodgers 4.32 4.91 4.60 0.28 45 5
Royals 4.27 4.80 4.53 0.26 42 4
Yankees 4.87 5.64 5.05 0.18 29 3
Blue Jays 4.41 4.85 4.56 0.15 24 2
Rays 4.78 5.36 4.87 0.09 15 1
Angels 4.72 5.12 4.73 0.01 2 0
Indians 4.97 5.49 4.95 -0.02 -3 0
Diamondbacks 4.44 4.53 4.36 -0.08 -13 -1
Braves 4.65 4.86 4.57 -0.08 -13 -1
Rockies 4.61 4.78 4.52 -0.09 -15 -1
Astros 4.42 4.46 4.32 -0.10 -16 -2
Brewers 4.63 4.71 4.47 -0.16 -26 -3
Cardinals 4.81 4.97 4.63 -0.18 -29 -3
Reds 4.35 4.20 4.16 -0.19 -31 -3
Red Sox 5.22 5.57 5.00 -0.22 -36 -4
White Sox 4.98 5.17 4.76 -0.22 -36 -4
Orioles 4.86 4.93 4.61 -0.25 -41 -4
Marlins 4.78 4.72 4.48 -0.30 -49 -5
Pirates 4.54 4.24 4.18 -0.36 -58 -6
Tigers 5.07 5.08 4.70 -0.37 -60 -6
Twins 5.09 5.05 4.68 -0.41 -66 -7
Mets 4.93 4.72 4.48 -0.45 -73 -7
Phillies 4.93 4.65 4.44 -0.49 -79 -8
Cubs 5.31 5.15 4.74 -0.57 -92 -9
Rangers 5.56 5.13 4.73 -0.83 -134 -13

This shows a seven game gain by the Yankees over the Red Sox just on offense. Baseball Prospectus projects an eleven game turnaround between the clubs, so that consistent with this analysis. BP has a 17 game turnaround between Oakland and Texas, and my analysis says 25 games just on offense. I suspect I’m overestimating the difference here, but probably not by much. Oakland’s pitching staff might easily be worse.

Take it all with a grain of salt, but it will be interesting to see how these predictions turn out at the end of the year.

3 thoughts on “Summing Up Offensive Predictions

  1. Josey Wales

    Does your table mean that the Texas Rangers can expect to win 13 fewer games in 2009 based on their offense with no regards to possible improvements to their pitching staff and defense?

    Thanks.

    ReplyReply
  2. David Pinto Post author

    Yes. If the Rangers pitching and defense improves by six wins, then we would expect the Rangers to lose seven games compared to last year.

    ReplyReply

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