The division preview series continues with the National League West. I’m rating the core of the team, the eight position players and designated hitter, five starters and closer by value wins or WAR.

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Position player WAR: 24.9
• Starters WAR: 11.7
• Closer WAR: 2.2
• Total WAR: 38.8

The Dodgers post the highest core WAR in the division on the strength of a great offense. Ramirez, Kemp and Either total 13.4 value wins between them, no other outfield in the division coming close. There’s even room for upside in the infield if Furcal can play a full season and James Loney rebounds from a poor 2008. Their eight position players are head and shoulders above the rest of the NL West.

The starting staff is a bit inexperienced, but there is upside there as well with Kershaw and McDonald. With the Dodgers hitters, and a good bullpen, the starters don’t need to be great to win.

There’s not a lot of downside with these WARs. Maybe Manny slides from his 6.5 value wins, but I would not be surprised to see this core come in at 42 wins at the end of the season. They’re likely to win over 90 games this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Position player WAR: 13.7
• Starters WAR: 17.9
• Closer WAR: 2.0
• Total WAR: 33.6

The Diamondbacks approach their value win total by the strength of their starting staff. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren combined for 12.4 value wins in 2008, close to the value of the Dodgers outfield. Max Sherzer even presents a great deal of upside to the rotation. He’s posted great strikeout and walk numbers in the minors, and looked pretty good in 2008 in only 56 innings of work.

The offense is another story, however. How long do we wait for Drew, Young and Jackson to develop beyond 2 or 3 value wins? They are all in their prime years in 2008, so we should see big numbers from them now. I’d like to say there’s upside in these three, but I’m starting to have doubts. Justin Upton, just 21, is the most likely player to add two or three wins to this team.

The Diamondbacks have the pitching to win the division. They need their offense to develop to make that a reality, however.

Colorado Rockies

• Position player WAR: 9.6
• Starters WAR: 13.6
• Closer WAR: 1.8
• Total WAR: 25.0

Even though the Rockies rate fourth in the division in total core WAR, I like this team to outperform that total. Troy Tulowitzki went from five value wins his rookie year to 0.8 in 2008. I would suspect now that he’s healthy to see a bounce back. Todd Helton playing a full season probably adds two wins. If Brad Hawpe can flip the sign on his WAR from negative to positive, there’s another two wins. Derek Fowler takes over in centerfield, and if he can come close to his minor league on-base percentages, he’ll add a couple of more wins. So if these four can combine for nine more wins, that brings the Rockies even with the DBacks and the Giants.

Cook and Jimmenez give the Rockies a decent 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation. The Offense is going to need to be very good to help the back three, however.

The Rockies will be my long shot for the division this year, maybe even reaching the playoffs as a wild card.

San Francisco Giants

• Position player WAR: 14.7
• Starters WAR: 19.3
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 34.6

The Giants easily run out the best rotation in the division, even with Barry Zito. Matt Cain is good, Randy Johnson is good and Jonathan Sanchez could be good if he finds his control (maybe Johnson can tell his story about finding his control). Tim Lincecum is great, but he’s also the spot in the Giants rotation most likely to regress. He’s a prime candidate for the Verducci effect, unless the mechanic Tim developed with the help of his father really do make a difference. If so, the Giants won’t allow many runs this year.

So they may kick themselves for not signing Manny Ramirez. Imagine the Giants with Ramirez in left instead of Fred Lewis and the Dodgers with Juan Pierre in the outfield instead of Manny Ramirez. That four win turnaround makes the Giants the best team in the division, not the Dodgers. For an organization that hasn’t won a World Series in 55 years, the $25 million should be worth it. Now, if they get a four win upside from Ishikawa and Sandoval, that just brings them even with Los Angeles instead of way in front.

Expect a ton of close, low-scoring games from this team. With a little luck, they can win more of those than they lose and compete in the division.

San Diego Padres

• Position player WAR: 15.4
• Starters WAR: 6.3
• Closer WAR: 0.9
• Total WAR: 22.6

I’m not as down on the Padres as I expected. Both Jake Peavy and Chris Young suffered through sub-par seasons. A bounce back from those two and San Diego might finish fourth. An Improvement from Chase Headly would up the chances of that finish, but there just isn’t that much upside to this team. They’re treading water while the ownership issues get settled. When that happens, however, they are going to need to do a lot of work to build this team back. It’s a smart front office, however, so maybe we’ll just how good they are at rebuilding quickly once the owner’s divorce is settled.

Prediction

Here’s how I see the five teams finishing, with my chance of their winning the division:

1. Dodgers, 45%
2. Giants, 22%
3. Diamondbacks, 20%
4. Rockies, 12%
5. Padres, 1%

It’s the Dodgers’ division to lose. Signing Manny Ramirez gives them the edge, and unless Manny quits on them, it’s going to take another team realizing all the upside potential of their young players to catch the Los Angeles. I like the Rockies to bounce back close to their 2007 win totals, and it could easily be a three or four team race with the Giants and Diamondbacks. There’s a good chance this turns out to be a fun division to watch.

Thanks to FanGraphs for the Win Values and CBS Sports for the depth charts.

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