There is no evidence in the statistical record that Alex Rodriguez tipped pitches:
If a tipping conspiracy were in place, one would expect that Rodriguez and rival middle infielders in games he played to have hit better in low-leverage situations than in high-leverage ones. Using a fairly loose definition of high leverage as a L.I. above 1.5 and low leverage as below 0.7, the data provide a resounding answer: either no tipping was going on or it was pathetically ineffective.
Contrary to his reputation as a choker, Rodriguez was actually at his best when the game was on the line as a Ranger. According to data compiled by Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference.com, his combined on-base and slugging percentages (O.P.S.) from 2001 to 2003 was 1.076 in high-leverage situations, compared with 1.017 for medium leverage and .982 in low leverage. Opposing second basemen and shortstops showed the same pattern. They registered an .899 O.P.S. when leverage was high, .825 when it was middling, and .817 when it was low. Unless Rodriguez’s behavior was even more nefarious — tipping only when it mattered most — the numbers give no reason to believe he was involved.
Using a more stringent definition of blowouts yields the same result. In plate appearances in which the teams were separated by seven runs or more, Rodriguez mustered just a .851 O.P.S., compared with 1.021 when the margin was six or fewer runs. His middle infield counterparts compiled a .744 mark in the laughers and .840 the rest of the time.
Selena Roberts writes for Sports Illustrated, a statistically connected magazine. In other words, she had the resources available to her to look for anomalies. I assume she knows the players who in league with Alex as well, or at least has a good idea of who they are. Why didn’t she bother doing such research?
Hat tip, ShysterBall.
Correction: Fixed the title.
Perhaps she knows exactly who they are, perhaps she did do the research, and perhaps it shows exactly the effect she claimed – perhaps.
If all those ‘perhaps’ were true and she had made the claim without including the names (and to protect her sources, presumably that is what would have happened), small sample size would have been thrown at her instead of the ‘no evidence’ challenge.
If something so against the spirit of the game is “pathetically ineffective” does that make it acceptable?
If all those ‘perhaps’ were true and she had made the claim without including the names (and to protect her sources, presumably that is what would have happened), small sample size would have been thrown at her instead of the ‘no evidence’ challenge.
Huh?
“Small sample size” means not a lot of evidence. But the actual situation is no evidence at all. Is your point that a little evidence is somehow better than no evidence?
Why worry about research and evidence and facts when you’ll sell more books based upon rumor an innuendo.
If Roberts has names, she needs to name them or have them come forward. Otherwise this is just smearing, yellow “journalism”. And I only use the word journalism because a better (worse) word doesn’t come to me right now.
girls and statistics? never
its all about the gossip with them.
its why they stink at math and fantasy baseball.
I just noticed that the title of this blog entry is wrong. It’s kind of a spoonerism. It’s funny that it’s so difficult to notice!
Consider Roberts’ dismisssive view of statistics in 2004 NYT..she makes Murray Chass look progessive…
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/14/sports/sports-of-the-times-beane-does-it-by-numbers-and-also-in-character.html?n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes%20Topics%2FSubjects%2FB%2FBaseball
“At 42, Beane didn’t invent sabermetrics, a sci-fi word formed from S.A.B.R., the Society of American Baseball Research (a k a The No-Life Institute). But with its philosophy filtered through his Ivy League predecessor in Oakland, Sandy Alderson, Beane applies the tenets of numeric efficiency found in the stapled baseball abstracts of the 70’s fringe writer Bill James.”
Bob, that column is also just some atrocious writing:
“Jumpin’ George Steinbrenner!
. . .
The A’s resident smarty-pants has survived Jason Giambi-like departures in the past.”
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