Deadspin falls into the age old trap of believing they’re living in a special time that produced 300 game winners. The more I think about it, the more I’m convinced Andy Pettitte could easily win 300 games. He’s eighty wins away right now at age 37. He talks about retiring, but his competitive spirit (and large paychecks) keep bringing him back.
He’s a left-hander who induces ground balls. The way balls are flying out of Yankee Stadium to rightfield, the probability exists that Andy’s combination of physical attribute and pitching skill will prove very valuable to the Yankees (although he’s allowed seven of his eight home runs in the Bronx this season).
Finally, Pettitte has the potential to remake himself into a slower pitcher, to become Jamie Moyer. Moyer didn’t start winning game in earnest until he was 33. He totaled 59 wins at that point and now has 250. Andy might get some coaching from Mike Mussina in this regard. That will allow Andy to be effective as age takes it’s toll.
Finally, the Yankees spend a lot of money to win. If Pettitte can stick around six years, he’ll get close enough to 300 to keep sticking around, simply by having a great offense behind him.
Just because the task is so difficult, Pettitte probably doesn’t reach 300. The task, however, is by no means impossible. In the mid-1990s stories circulated about the end of the 300 game winner. Those stories turned out to be extremely wrong. There will be more 300 game winners, and I think some of them will surprise us.
Posted by David Pinto at 11:21 am | Pitchers | Permalink | 12 Comments
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June 5th, 2009 @ 11:44 am
David, you missed one very important piece of information regarding Pettitte: when asked about 300 wins, he pretty much said “hell no!” He said there’s no way that he’s going to pitch that long. It seems that he might only be pitching this year and maybe next year at most. From the talk, his heart just doesn’t seem to be in it anymore.
June 5th, 2009 @ 11:51 am
@sabernar: Yes, but I’ve been hearing that for three or four years now, and he always comes back. How many people turn down the chance to make $5 million a year? Mussina is the outlier here.
June 5th, 2009 @ 11:53 am
Pitchers like Johnson, Clemens, Maddux, etc. have pitched 22-24 years. If some guys do that in the future, they will have to average around 13 wins a year. That seems possible.
June 5th, 2009 @ 11:57 am
Suppose that Sabathia wins 10 more games this year (for a total of 15). He then has 132 wins. He will turn 28 in July. If he pitches 13 more years and averages 13 wins, he makes it to 300. Playing for the Yankees could help. But a big heavy guy like that might not last. Just saying winning 300 is still plausible.
June 5th, 2009 @ 12:22 pm
300*
June 5th, 2009 @ 12:43 pm
The thing that always amazes me is that people use the big money as a reason that there WON’T be more 300 game winners. What, ballplayers now get a Zen-like satisfaction once they have earned $100 million or so? Show me a ballplayer who says he doesn’t care about another big payday and I’ll show you a ballplayer who can’t play any more.
June 5th, 2009 @ 1:11 pm
I’ve been reading about the demise of the 300 game winner since Nolan Ryan in 1990. Everybody seems to use 40 as the mandatory age of retirement for pitchers. Ryan and Gaylord Perry were 43 when they won their 300th. Phil Niekro was 46. Johnson is 45. With 30 teams needing pitching and medical know-how to keep pitchers physically able to pitch more seasons than ever before, there’s no reason to think there won’t be any more 300 game winners.
June 5th, 2009 @ 1:30 pm
[...] Dave Pinto wonders if Andy Pettitte could be the next to 300. This might seem outlandish, and in a way it is. Pettitte is 80 wins away from 300 and is 37 years old. Even if he somehow picked up 15 wins this year (which would be possible if his back calms down), he’d still need 70 wins from age 38 on to attain that 300 mark. Combine that with the decision Pettitte has to make after every season, and it would seem foolish to even consider him for 300. Yet, consider the circumstances. [...]
June 5th, 2009 @ 1:37 pm
ill take the under on 250 games let alone 300
must be a yankee lover
June 5th, 2009 @ 1:48 pm
Given the improving medical field, and considering we’ve recently seen two 350 game winners, there’s the possibility we might see a 400 game winner. Which will probably happen before the Cubs win the World Series.
June 5th, 2009 @ 2:17 pm
A good amount of 300 game winners have won 40+ games from age 38 onward, so I could see it happening if he continues to play.
June 6th, 2009 @ 8:55 am
How many pitchers keep debating retirement and then come back signing only one-year deals when they obviously could’ve gotten a longer contract if they wanted one? Pettite’s the only one I can think of (outside of Clemens, who is an entirely different story). Jamie Moyer even insisted on a two-year deal, and he’s older than Methuselah.
Pettite is serious about retirement – he’s not just playing hard to get like many players do – and, no matter how competitive he is, he’s going to retire for real after one of the next few seasons.