The Tigers and Twins face off in Minneapolis this afternoon in a one-game playoff to determine the AL Central champion. The game does count as a regular season game, so Joe Mauer’s final batting average has yet to be determined.

Rick Porcello takes the ball for the Tigers. The Tigers’ rookie comes into the game with a 14-9 record and a 4.04 ERA. Porcello pitches to contact striking out just 81 batters in 165 innings. Against a good batting average team like the Twins (.274, 3rd in the AL), that’s not a good thing. In three starts against Minnesota, Porcello allowed a .299 BA versus .270 overall. What’s more, in the Metrodome, he allowed 15 hits in 43 at bats over two games, a .349 BA. Five of those hits went for extra bases, resulting in a 6.30 ERA.

Baker owns better strikeout and walk rates than Porcello, but a higher ERA. He got off to a rough start in April as he came back from an injury, giving up seven home runs in his first 14 2/3 innings. He allowed 20 the rest of the way. After the All-Star break he went 8-2 with a 3.21 ERA, the sort of record the Twins want from their ace.

The Tigers gave Baker as much trouble as the Twins gave Procello. In four starts against Detroit, Scott allowed a 6.75 ERA. He did pitch well against them last week, going five innings on Oct. 1st, allowing an unearned run.

Baker is an unusual right-handed pitcher as he gets lefties out much better than righties. Lefties hit 50 points worse than righties, with a 20 point drop in OBP and about a 150 point drop in slugging percentage. This was his big problem with the Tigers as their righties clobbered him, posting a .509 slugging percentage.

The Twins are the hotter team. Since they started their surge on Sept 13th, they’ve hit .309/.381/.477, while the Tigers have hit .268/.347/.382. They’re walking, but not much else. Given the two pitchers, the offenses and the game in Minnesota, this matchup favors the Twins.

Enjoy!

Update: I’m surprised Rob Neyer missed Baker’s reverse platoon difference.