The Phillies and Yankees kick off the 2009 World Series on Wednesday in the Bronx. The following table shows the team ranks in their respective leagues for various offensive and pitching categories:

Looking at the runs scored numbers, one might suspect a high scoring series. Both teams led their leagues in runs per game. Note, however, that the Yankees and Phillies when about their scoring differently. The Yankees excelled at all aspect of offense. They hit for average, did a great job getting on base, and added top notch power as the icing on the cake. The Phillies offense relied on the long ball for scoring runs, as their batting average and OBP were relatively low in the NL. If the Yankees can limit the Phillies power, they can pretty much shutdown the offense. The Yankee, with more weapons on that side of the ball, will be tougher to stop.

That said, the Yankees’ pitching staff wasn’t that good at preventing home runs. What the Yankees staff did well was strike out batters, which tends to lower a team’s batting average. That allowed them to pitch around walks, something that might be difficult with the Phillies. It’s tough to pitch around the heart of the order on this team. Two through six, there’s only one team better in the majors in terms of OPS; the Yankees.

So if the Yankees try to pitch around Utley or Howard, they need to contend with two good power hitters in Werth and Ibanez.

While the middle of the orders are evenly matched, the other three position players aren’t. The Yankees one, seven, and eight hitters posted an OPS of .841, while the Phillies trio came in at just .716. The Phillies however, will trot out decent designated hitters, as I suspect Ben Francisco will move into the outfield with Ibanez taking the DH position in New York.

Right now the first three games are set up for each team to see two lefties. Both teams hit lefties and righties equally well, the Yankees a bit better against lefties. Of course, the Phillies southpaws turn the Yankees switch hitters around, which is what a team should want to do in both ballparks. Interestingly, the Phillies hit for a much lower average against lefties than righties, but make up for it with a higher OBP and slugging percentage.

The Yankees have the better bullpen, but the Phillies should be boosted a bit by Manuel’s willingness to use Happ and Blanton in a relief role.

As for the starting pitching, the Lee-Sabathia matchup may be one of the best ever. Both are stingy with walks, both can fool batters into striking out, and both like to finish what they start. Pedro Martinez against A.J. Burnett is a tough one to call. Martinez’s season defines small sample size, and you’re never quite sure which Burnett is going to show up. We saw them both on display in game five against Anaheim. Pettitte vs. Hamels pits two pitchers with great post-season success against each other. In general, the starting matchups seem to be a wash to me.

Therefore, it comes down to the offenses, and the Yankees are simply stronger. They match the heart of the Phillies lineup man for man, and excel in the surrounding spots. It would not surprise me to see three or four home runs per game in this series and a high percentage of those might be solo shots. The Yankees, however, should get a few more batters on base, and that might make the difference in the series.

I give the Yankees a 53% chance of taking home their 27th World Championship. We’ll see, however, if the Phillies ability to rise to the occasion, to get the clutch hit late in the game, carries over to the World Series.