Nick Johnson's selectivity would fit well in the #9 slot.
The series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. The Yankees led the majors in runs per game in 2009, scoring 5.65 runs per game. According to this notes column in the NY Post, Joe Girardi is still deciding who to bat 2, 5, 6, and 7. Maybe this can help.
The CBSSportsline depth chart gives us a feel for the type of lineup Girardi likes to use. I’m going to plug in Johnson for Matsui and Granderson for Damon in the likely Yankees lineup. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.92 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.83 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 5.56 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 5.28 runs per game
It’s clear that it is difficult to construct a bad lineup for the Yankees. What’s interesting to me is how radical the best lineup would be based on the Marcels. Nick Johnson leading off, and Jeter serving as a second leadoff man in the ninth spot. That will never fly, but I really do like the idea of Johnson batting ninth, serving as the second leadoff man in front of Jeter. He did bat ninth quite a bit in his previous incarnation with the Yankees, and batting ninth will give him fewer opportunities to get hurt. This lineup, while slightly radical, should take care of everyone’s egos and score 5.88 runs per game.
Previous entries in this series:
I think the whole Johnsom/Gardner/Granderson for Damon/Matsui exercise is going to be very interesting.
I would think their best lineup would be
Jeter
Johnson
A-Rod
Tex
Granderson
Posada
Swisher
Cano
Gardner
Giving one of baseballs top OBP guys the fewest PA does not seem a good startegy to me. Also, Jeter does not hit particularly well with ROB and is a DP maker. Otherwise, if Jeter was better with ROB Johnson could hit first (first leadoff) and Jeter 2nd, Tex 3rd and A-Rod 4th, etc.
The key to the Yankees lineup will be Granderson and if he can take advantage of that park and lineup to boost his OBP and HR’s. Gardner is the only hole in that lineup and he should get as few PA as possible.
I like Nick Johnson and Nick Swisher batting early in the order. Because these two guys use up so many pitches, the opposing starting pitcher wouldn’t go as deep into the game.
I assume the Lineup Analysis Tool doesn’t reflect how long the opposing starter lasts or whether starters pitch better than long relievers. I assume that for a given batter the Lineup Analysis Tool uses the same probabilities for each at bat. I wonder if there would be much impact if the model adjusted for how long the opposing starting pitcher lasts.
I like
Jeter
Johnson
Texiera
Rodriguez
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Granderson
Winn(Sorry Brett)