With all three competitors for the two remaining playoff spots winning Wednesday night, there is only one win total left that will lead to a three way tie for the NL West and Wild Card. The teams can only tie at 91 wins.
- San Diego Padres 3-1
- Atlanta Braves 1-2
- San Francisco Giants 1-3
The odds of this tie happening got longer again, 1 in 65. You can see the probability dipping in the chart below (click for a larger version):
The possibility of a tie can die Thursday, however, if San Diego and San Francisco end with the same result. If both teams win or both teams lose, the three-game series pitting the Padres against the Giants in San Francisco will decide the NL West champion, but those two teams can’t tie. (It’s also possible that neither get eliminated from the playoffs if the Braves get swept, and either could tie the Braves for the wild card.) Based on their Pythagorean winning percentages, the probability of the Padres beating the Cubs today is .617. The probability of the Giants beating the Diamondbacks is .660. Knowing that, we can figure out the probability of the teams ending up with the same result and different results.
| SD Padres | SF Giants | Same Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 0.617 | 0.660 | 0.408 |
| Lose | 0.383 | 0.340 | 0.130 |
| Different Result | 0.210 | 0.252 |
The probability of getting the same result is .408+.130, .538. The probability of getting a different result is .462. So the massive tie scenario is more likely to end today.
Even if it doesn’t the way it survives effects the likelihood of the massive tie. If the Padres lose and the Giants win, then San Diego has to sweep San Francisco. In a three-game series, there are eight possible out comes. Only one of them has the Padres sweeping. If instead, the Padres need to take just two out of three, then three of the eight possibilities end in a tie.
So for today, this is the preferred outcome:
- San Francisco falls to Arizona (12:45 PM PDT start)
- San Deigo defeats the Chicago Cubs (3:45 PDT start)
If a massive tie is possible, it would behoove the Phillies to take two out of three from Atlanta. This would force the teams to play at least one extra games, and a possible opponent might burn one or two of their best pitchers in the playoff.