The earlier discussion on Matt Cain sent me to Baseball Analytics to see if the heat charts for Matt showed any signs that he is controlling the way fly balls are put into play against him. For the moment, I’m limiting the discussion to left-handed batters. The PITCH f/x data covers 2008 through 2010. In that time, Matt faced left-handed batters and right-handed batters nearly equally, allowing 32 home runs to LHB and 31 HR to RHB.

The first graph represents all pitches to LHB during the regular season. The chart on the left shows position of the pitch in the strike zone. The chart to the right indicates movement of the ball.

Matt Cain overall pitch location and movement to LHB, 2008-2010 regular season.

Note that pitches above the X-axis on the movement chart do not indicate balls that are rising. They are pitches that are falling less that expected. Here is the explanation:

Each grid line represents 4 feet per second and the x-axis is placed at 13 ft/sec down which is the avg vertical speed of a typical pitch as it crosses home plate. A pitch one grid line above the center axis is falling at 9 ft/sec as it crosses home plate.

Cain’s most frequent pitches to LHB move in on them and stay up more than expected.

Compare that to his pitches that induce fly balls:

Matt Cain fly ball pitch location and movement to LHB, 2008-2010 regular season.

LHB are hitting pitches away in the strike zone, and once again pitches that are staying up.

Next, the fly ball outs.

Matt Cain fly ball outs pitch location and movement to LHB, 2008-2010 regular season.

The graph matches his overall fly ball location and movement well. What happens on home runs?

Matt Cain fly ball home runs pitch location and movement to LHB, 2008-2010 regular season.

It’s a bit of a double whammy. LHB hit the pitch down and in hard. These pitches do not stay up like his out pitches, and also tend to break toward the batter more.

One interpretation of the data is that the lack of drop on Cain’s pitches to LHB fools them, causing the to swing under the pitch. They fail to make solid contact, resulting in a fly out. Note that his home runs tend to be on the fringes of his usual locations for left-handed batters. The also tend to drop more normally, allowing the batter better contact. Cain reliably makes pitches that are easy to hit in the air, but tough to hit out of the park.

Without posting the same pictures for RHB, the home runs seem more random. His home run pitches tend to stay up more than his out pitches on fly balls, and the location of home runs and most of his fly outs are the same.

My conclusion is that Matt does a good job of keeping the ball up in the strike zone. His pitches drop less than expected, and batters tend to get under them too much. I’m surprised that after six seasons in the league, batters haven’t done a better job of adjusting to his pattern.