October 31, 2010

Playoffs Today

Game four of the World Series gets underway at 8:20 PM EDT so that football doesn’t interfere with the broadcast. I see the game as the critical one in the series as Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants against Tommy Hunter and the Rangers.

Game four is where the Giants have a clear advantage over the Rangers in terms of the pitching match-up. Both pitchers are control artists, keeping walks to a minimum. Bumgarner, however, is superior in the other two legs of the pitching tripod. He strikes out batters at a rate of 7.0 per nine innings and allows 19.8 home runs per 200 innings. Hunter in 2010 struck out 4.8 batters per nine and allows 32.8 home runs per 200 innings.

On top of that, the Giants are a hacking team, that doesn’t care that much about the walks. As we saw with Cliff Lee in game one, San Francisco batters can put the ball in play well. With fewer K from Hunter, they’ll get even more opportunities for batted balls to find holes.

Both pitchers should be comfortable in their surroundings. Hunter went 7-0 at home this season with a 3.06 ERA, mostly because his strikeout rate went up at home. Bumgarner posted a 1.91 ERA on the road, with a superior strikeout and walk rate away from AT&T Park.

When I looked at this series, I thought there was a good chance the teams would split the six games among the top three starters, which made game four critical. If the Giants win this contest, they only need to get one more win from a Lincecum, Cain, or Sanchez start. If Texas wins, I would not bet against Cliff Lee in game five, meaning the Rangers would just need a split in San Francisco to win the series. I’m rooting for Texas tonight, as win in this game gives the series a very good chance of going seven games, and I would love to see a no-tomorrow game again.

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