The Yankees are going to offer Derek Jeter between $15 million and $20 million a season. I can see $15 million, but $20 million is way too high. On the other hand, it will only be a three-year deal. Jeter, with his ten-year deal coming to an end, was very fairly compensated by the Yankees over the length of his career. There’s no need to makeup for earned value with this contract. When all is said and done, I would not be surprised to see the average value of this contract to come out to $19 million a year, just ahead of the average value of his last contract.
I disagree with the word “only” in “only three years.” Even for one year, it’s a gamble whether Jeter will be a top SS in 2011. Not only was his 2010 OPS+ a mediocre 90, it was worse in the last half of the season. I hope he bounces back in 2011 but there’s no guarantee.
However, when we come to 2012 and 2013, hoping an aging Jeter will still be a top SS is a long shot indeed. I’m afraid this projected contract will waste most of its $57 million cost, will give us three years of a SS with worse and worse range in the field, and will block better SS’s. This amounts to virtually giving up on being World Champion for the next three years.
I think both of you might be making a bad assumption about ‘worth’. The worth of Jeter to the Yankees probably can’t be measured by win shares (or WAR, etc.) alone. Jeter’s market value to the team is the difference between the money they’d make with him and the money they’d make without him. I doubt that is purely a function of team wins.
Jeter is done. He can hit LHP and really offers little else. The Yankees can afford to overpay, but will they be able to bench an icon? I say, find a reason to to end negotiations and cut your losses. Stick a fork in him.
I totally agree with algionfriddo about the problems caused by Jeter being an icon. In 2010 he was the worst hitter of any regular by a wide margin. He should have batted 9th, at least against RH starters. He should have been pinch-hit for in key situations. Neither of these things every happened. The worst hitter on the team always hit 1st or 2nd.
I’m afraid the same thing will continue for the next three years. With the Great Derek Jeter in the middle of a $57 million contract, the manager will have to treat him as if he were a good hitter, even though he isn’t.
BTW similar comments apply to fielding. Today Ramiro Peña is a much better fielder than Jeter. When late inning defensive replacements were used, Peña ought to have routinely replaced Jeter. That very seldom happened.
I think he will get a guarantee of 15 million per year and incentives like PA, All Star and WS could bring it up to 20 million. I also think they would ask Jeter to defer some money to leave some to spend on a supporting cast so he can play out his last years on a winner. They may do the same with Mariano.
Jeter of course will probably look for more years, so there may be an option year included, a team option for the same money, and a player option for less money.
If he plays hardball over trying to get 6 years his popularity may take a hit in this economy, as most fans, even Jeter fans will think he is being given a fair offer given his age and the fact he has already made 205 million + endorsements (8.5 million in 2010). If he becomes too unpopular pushing for 6 years he might play into the Yankees hands and find the 3 year deal off the table.
Overpaying for 3 years is no big problem for the Yankees seeing as Pettitte, Posada and maybe Rivera are in their last year, so they have some money coming off the books.
There’s no way Jeter gets six years, and I don’t think he’s asking for six.
I also find it hard to believe that readers of Baseball Musings project a player’s future from a single bad year. That’s irrational. Look at the Baseball Prospectus projection.
@James: You have a good point. As he showed a couple of years ago with his defense, Jeter is willing to work to improve his game, even if he doesn’t publicly acknowledge a problem. He could easily bounce back in 2011 to a more useful offensive level.
James, I’m projecting Jeter’s hitting decline based on more than his bad 2010. In 2008 his OPS+ was only 102. He was essentially a league average batter. Most of all, it’s his age. He’ll be 37, 38, and 39 years old during his rumored 3-year contract. Very, very few players bounce back at those ages.
The other part of the problem is his deteriorating fielding as a SS. Watching the World Series, you could see with your naked eye how much slower he is than Renteria or Andrus. As Jeter ages he can only get slower, to the point where he no longer is a major league SS.
I have no doubt that Jeter could learn to play outfield or 1B or maybe 3B. Trouble is, he doesn’t hit well enough to hold any of those positions on the Yankees. If he really wants to maximize his career and earnings, he ought finish his carerer on some weak team, just as Wille Mays and Babe Ruth did.
One point that’s been missed is that the free agent market this year is thin. If the Yankees can’t land Lee, they are probably not in the hunt next year for another world championship. Its not the case that the money used to pay Jeter over the next three years would be used instead for some high-impact free agent.
This is from the Wikipedia article on Phil Rizzuto:
“Rizzuto was released by the Yankees on August 25, 1956. Rizzuto often talked about the unusual circumstances of his release. Late in the 1956 season, the Yankees re-acquired Enos Slaughter, who had been with the team in 1954–55, and asked Rizzuto to meet with the front office to discuss adjustments to the upcoming postseason roster. They then asked Rizzuto to look over the list of Yankee players and suggest which ones might be cut to make room for Slaughter. For each name Rizzuto mentioned, a reason was given as to why that player needed to be kept. Finally, Rizzuto realized that the expendable name was his own.”
@David in Cal: When Willie Mays finished his career with the Mets in 1973, his last games were in the World Series. Not so weak.