December 6, 2010

Reynolds Wrapped

The Baltimore Orioles acquired Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Baltimore Orioles have agreed to a deal to obtain slugging third baseman Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks in return for minor league prospects, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney.

Reynolds is an Adam Dunn type player, where little of his value resides in his batting average. He had such a falloff in his BA in 2010, however, that his slugging percentage suffered greatly.

What happened to Reynolds in 2010? He lost the middle of the strike zone.

Mark Reynolds in-play average, 2008-2009.

Mark Reynolds in-play average, 2008-2009.

As you can see, he smacked balls over the plate pretty well.

Mark Reynolds in-play average, 2010.

Mark Reynolds in-play average, 2010.

The difference is fairly stark. Reynolds in-play average in 2008-2009 came in at .402. In 2010, it dropped to .337. The Orioles must believe there was some bad luck associated with that drop in BA. If so, they’re likely getting a very good deal. Reynolds is going into his age 27 season, so he should be at his peak. In other words, the Orioles hope Reynolds 2010 season corresponds to Robinson Cano in 2008.

Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the heat maps.

Update: The Diamondbacks get two relievers for Mark Reynolds as they try to rebuild their bullpen:

The Orioles have attempted to solve their corner infield and power void troubles by sending two young relievers to the Arizona Diamondbacks for third baseman Mark Reynolds.

To acquire Reynolds, who has had at least 28 homers in each of the past three seasons, the Orioles gave up right-handed relievers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio.

Mickolio strikes out a ton of batters, but he’s wild. In the minors, his walks were high but okay. In the majors so far they are out of control. Hernandez is pretty much in the same boat. If Reynolds can get his batting average back up again, this trade will be a steal for Baltimore.

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