January 5, 2011

The Beltre Deal

Although reports put Adrian Beltre‘s deal with the Rangers at six years, $96 million, only the first five years are guaranteed:

The Rangers have negotiated some flexibility into the back end of the contract. If Beltre fails to attain a set number of plate appearances over the course of the deal, the team can void the sixth and final year.

It’s also correct to say the contract is five years with a vesting option for the sixth. Put another way, if Beltre stays healthy, his 2016 salary becomes guaranteed.

When Beltre didn’t live up to the stats of his final season with the Dodgers, many thought the Mariners didn’t get a good deal on his five year, $64 million contract. According to FanGraphs, however, Beltre did return about $67 million in value. The Mariners, of course, signed him in his prime after a break out year. The Rangers are signing him after his second best season, with Adrian going into the decline phase of his career.

That said, I like this move, especially if it means Vlad Guerrero doesn’t return. It gives the team a defensive wall on the left-side of the infield. That should make C.J. Wilson very happy, a lefty with a high percentage of ground balls.

On offense, the big change in Beltre in 2010 was his ability to pound the inside pitch.

Adrian Beltre slugging, 2008-2009.

Adrian Beltre slugging, 2008-2009.

Adrian Beltre slugging, 2010.

Adrian Beltre slugging, 2010.

That was more than just Fenway, as the image holds up in Red Sox road games as well. Maybe the Red Sox coaching staff worked some magic on Adrian?

The deal also prevents Beltre from going to the Angels, where he would have been a huge improvement at third base. So Texas probably over paid a bit, but they had the money to spend and at least short term, it should be a very good signing for the Rangers.

Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the heat maps.

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