The Minnesota Twins retained Carl Pavano, agreeing to pay him $16.5 million over two years. He generated $28 million in value in two years since leaving the Yankees, so this is a great deal for the Twins. It seems Carl is still paying the price for four years of injuries.
This might be a good contract for the Twins. It also might not. Pavano just turned 35 and is coming off the 2nd best season of his career. He only has one other season in his career with 30+ starts and a sub 4.00 ERA. In 2010, he benefited from a very low BABIP and subsequently high strand rate.
Combine those things with his career low K rate last season (for a full year) and he is a pitcher that is a prime candidate for a regression in 2011. That’s not even counting his injury history.
This might work out for Minnesota and it might not. Far too early to judge and it seems like a pretty fair contract.
I’m with Erick on this.
David, the *expected value* of the contract is probably just about what it’s costing the Twins. Actual value could be a lot higher or a lot lower.
As a Yankee fan, I want our $40 million back, Carl.