In looking at Andy Pettitte‘s career at FanGraphs, I was surprised to see his career ERA is higher than his FIP. Surprised, because one of Andy’s strength’s as a pitcher was his ability to remove runners from the base paths with both double plays and pick-offs. During his career, from 1995 to 2010, no one induced as many double plays as Andy. When pitchers take runners off base, they reduce their effective OBP against. Since two components of FIP are walks and home runs, the removal of base runners should reduce the ability of both of contribute to runs. Fewer batters walked should score, and fewer players on base means the home runs won’t be as damaging.
Instead, we see Pettitte with a slightly higher ERA than FIP. During most of his career with the Yankees, the Yankees did not play a good defense behind him. Most importantly, the shortstop played poor defense. A left-handed, ground ball pitcher needs a good shortstop. Andy’s FIP is a real indictment of New York’s defense. Even with Pettitte’s great ability to remove base runners, he couldn’t compensate enough for the Yankees defense to bring his ERA under his fielding independent stats.
So did Derek Jeter cost Andy Pettitte a shot at the Hall of Fame? If a good shortstop where behind him, maybe Andy’s career ERA comes in under 3.60, and he has a better case. Given all his other strengths (winning percentage, durability, his own excellent defense and his ability to remove runners from the bases), a lower ERA would really help the voters.
Update: Philip Walsh noticed this yesterday, but I just saw the tweet.
If he’s got a different shortstop behind him, he doesn’t make any of those 7 World Series. Works both ways.
I do think Andy is a Hall of Famer. Marginal/just under during the regular season, but I think it’s his post season work that puts him over the top. Yes, there are more rounds/games in this era than in the past. But that’s the same for every player of this era. I’m not comparing Andy to, say Babe Ruth’s World Series pitching performance, but to his post season performance vs. all others of this era. As David notes, his winning percentage went up against other postseason (& thus “good”) teams.
And yes, these Yankee teams had a collection of very good players. Andy happened to be one of them. Did he get to hand off leads to Mo? Yes. But he was handing off leads. Andy put the Yankees in the position of winning the games. Against other good teams.
Andy Pettitte was essentially the exact same pitcher he was in the regular season and the playoffs. If he’s not good enough on his regular season body of work, you can’t really put him in based off his playoff performance. He just got to start 42 games. That’s a huge amount and is essentially a full season of playoff starts.
But he wasn’t something better in the playoffs. He didn’t turn into Sandy Koufax. He was just the good and reliable Andy Pettitte.
A hall of the very good, but not a hall of fame player.