When I looked at Shaun Marcum‘s stats today, it struck me that he kept himself out of trouble by not facing too many batters with runners in scoring position. It turns out he was just slightly above average, but I thought the data was interesting. The following table shows all pitchers with at least 600 batters faced in 2011, the number they faced with men in scoring position, and the percentage of total PA with men in scoring position:
Pitcher | Batters Faced | RISP BF | RISP Pct |
James Shields | 975 | 157 | 16.1 |
Josh Tomlin | 662 | 109 | 16.5 |
Justin Verlander | 969 | 167 | 17.2 |
Jered Weaver | 926 | 164 | 17.7 |
Michael Pineda | 696 | 130 | 18.7 |
Cliff Lee | 920 | 174 | 18.9 |
Jordan Zimmermann | 662 | 126 | 19.0 |
Alexi Ogando | 693 | 132 | 19.0 |
Colby Lewis | 839 | 165 | 19.7 |
Joshua Collmenter | 621 | 123 | 19.8 |
Mark Buehrle | 858 | 170 | 19.8 |
Clayton Kershaw | 912 | 183 | 20.1 |
Joe Saunders | 874 | 177 | 20.3 |
Chris Carpenter | 996 | 202 | 20.3 |
Derek Holland | 843 | 172 | 20.4 |
Cole Hamels | 850 | 174 | 20.5 |
Brandon McCarthy | 690 | 143 | 20.7 |
Bronson Arroyo | 855 | 178 | 20.8 |
Ricky Romero | 917 | 193 | 21.0 |
Max Scherzer | 833 | 176 | 21.1 |
Philip Humber | 676 | 143 | 21.2 |
Bartolo Colon | 694 | 147 | 21.2 |
Mike Leake | 693 | 148 | 21.4 |
Yovani Gallardo | 865 | 186 | 21.5 |
Dan Haren | 953 | 205 | 21.5 |
Kevin Correia | 660 | 142 | 21.5 |
Jeff Karstens | 668 | 144 | 21.6 |
Gavin Floyd | 798 | 173 | 21.7 |
Doug Fister | 875 | 192 | 21.9 |
David Price | 918 | 205 | 22.3 |
Shaun Marcum | 823 | 184 | 22.4 |
Zack Greinke | 715 | 160 | 22.4 |
Javier Vazquez | 798 | 179 | 22.4 |
Hiroki Kuroda | 838 | 188 | 22.4 |
Bruce Chen | 654 | 147 | 22.5 |
Chris Capuano | 802 | 181 | 22.6 |
Kyle Lohse | 775 | 175 | 22.6 |
C.J. Wilson | 915 | 208 | 22.7 |
Tim Hudson | 884 | 201 | 22.7 |
Jeremy Hellickson | 774 | 176 | 22.7 |
Ted Lilly | 800 | 182 | 22.8 |
Gio Gonzalez | 864 | 197 | 22.8 |
Josh Beckett | 767 | 175 | 22.8 |
Tim Stauffer | 777 | 179 | 23.0 |
Madison Bumgarner | 844 | 195 | 23.1 |
Jon Lester | 799 | 186 | 23.3 |
Johnny Cueto | 631 | 147 | 23.3 |
Jason Vargas | 857 | 200 | 23.3 |
CC Sabathia | 985 | 230 | 23.4 |
John Danks | 728 | 170 | 23.4 |
Luke Hochevar | 835 | 195 | 23.4 |
Chris Narveson | 699 | 164 | 23.5 |
Wandy Rodriguez | 808 | 191 | 23.6 |
Wade Davis | 795 | 188 | 23.6 |
Mat Latos | 799 | 189 | 23.7 |
John Lannan | 808 | 192 | 23.8 |
Ryan Vogelsong | 752 | 179 | 23.8 |
Ivan Nova | 704 | 168 | 23.9 |
Brandon Morrow | 777 | 186 | 23.9 |
Brian Duensing | 711 | 171 | 24.1 |
Kyle McClellan | 607 | 146 | 24.1 |
Aaron Harang | 719 | 173 | 24.1 |
Ian Kennedy | 900 | 217 | 24.1 |
Jeremy Guthrie | 889 | 216 | 24.3 |
Ervin Santana | 949 | 232 | 24.4 |
Chris Volstad | 719 | 176 | 24.5 |
Justin Masterson | 908 | 223 | 24.6 |
Joel Pineiro | 631 | 155 | 24.6 |
Matt Harrison | 772 | 190 | 24.6 |
Brett Myers | 917 | 226 | 24.6 |
Roy Halladay | 933 | 230 | 24.7 |
Paul Maholm | 687 | 171 | 24.9 |
Anibal Sanchez | 830 | 208 | 25.1 |
Zachary Britton | 666 | 167 | 25.1 |
Matt Garza | 839 | 211 | 25.1 |
Jhoulys Chacin | 827 | 208 | 25.2 |
Daniel Hudson | 921 | 232 | 25.2 |
Jair Jurrjens | 627 | 158 | 25.2 |
Livan Hernandez | 751 | 190 | 25.3 |
Nick Blackburn | 670 | 171 | 25.5 |
Tim Lincecum | 900 | 230 | 25.6 |
R.A. Dickey | 876 | 225 | 25.7 |
Carl Pavano | 955 | 247 | 25.9 |
Jaime Garcia | 826 | 214 | 25.9 |
Felix Hernandez | 964 | 250 | 25.9 |
Jason Hammel | 739 | 192 | 26.0 |
Carlos Zambrano | 634 | 165 | 26.0 |
Ryan Dempster | 881 | 230 | 26.1 |
Randy Wolf | 903 | 237 | 26.2 |
Trevor Cahill | 901 | 238 | 26.4 |
Rick Porcello | 784 | 208 | 26.5 |
Freddy Garcia | 626 | 167 | 26.7 |
Bud Norris | 795 | 213 | 26.8 |
Tyler Chatwood | 633 | 170 | 26.9 |
James McDonald | 754 | 204 | 27.1 |
Chad Billingsley | 829 | 225 | 27.1 |
Ubaldo Jimenez | 822 | 224 | 27.3 |
Mike Pelfrey | 860 | 236 | 27.4 |
Ricky Nolasco | 891 | 245 | 27.5 |
J.A. Happ | 698 | 192 | 27.5 |
Brad Penny | 803 | 221 | 27.5 |
Matt Cain | 907 | 250 | 27.6 |
Fausto Carmona | 833 | 230 | 27.6 |
Jake Westbrook | 809 | 224 | 27.7 |
Tim Wakefield | 677 | 188 | 27.8 |
Jeff Francis | 803 | 223 | 27.8 |
Dillon Gee | 706 | 199 | 28.2 |
A.J. Burnett | 837 | 237 | 28.3 |
Jo-Jo Reyes | 641 | 182 | 28.4 |
Jonathon Niese | 694 | 199 | 28.7 |
Edwin Jackson | 861 | 247 | 28.7 |
Derek Lowe | 830 | 239 | 28.8 |
John Lackey | 743 | 226 | 30.4 |
Charlie Morton | 769 | 245 | 31.9 |
Note that quite a few Cy Young contenders reside at the top of the list. One likely reason for James Shields and Justin Verlander going so deep in games is they seldom gave a manager a reason to take them out. A manager pulls a pitcher when he show signs of tiring, or gets in trouble late. By keeping batters and runners out of scoring position, those pitchers allowed themselves to face a few extra batters, and in the case of Shields it led to a very high complete game total.
There is a huge difference between CC Sabathia (23.4%) and Justin Verlander (17.2%), by the way. FanGraphs rates CC ahead of Justin in terms of WAR, but this is another example of why that’s wrong. Justin stayed out of trouble, and CC had to pitch out of trouble constantly. In the case of pitching against a good offense (like the Red Sox), that didn’t pan out well.
Pirates fans should also worry a little about Charlie Morton’s “good” season. As John Lackey and A.J. Burnett show, if you keep putting players in scoring position, they often come around to score.
Brewers:
Gallardo 21.5%
Marcum 22.4
Greinke 22.4
Narveson 23.5
Wolf 26.2
Cardinals:
Carpenter 20.3
Lohse 22.6
McClellan 24.1
Garcia 25.9
Westbrook 27.7
Jackson 28.7
Probably a close correlation to WHIP?