March 26, 2012

Crystal Ball Gazing

Dave Shovein makes his bold predictions for 2012. His big one concerns Adam Dunn hitting 35+ home runs this season:

Even during his abysmal 2011, he still managed a nice walk rate (15.1 percent) and flyball rate (47.5). The culprit for the drop in homers was simply the weak contact he made, leading to a homer-per-fly rate of only 9.6 percent (atrocious by Dunn’s standards). While you can’t place too much stock in offseason fluff stories, Dunn has by all accounts worked extremely hard. He swung a bat over the winter for the first time in his career and is in fairly good shape (for his body type, at least). I think we see the Grande Mule of old in 2012. I expect Dunn to look in vintage form, hitting 35-plus home runs with a .240 average.

White Sox fans would love that. FanGraphs lists six different projections for Dunn, the average coming out to 23-24 long balls in 2012.

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