The 2012 division previews continue with the AL East. I’ll use 2011 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FanGraphs for the evaluation. I concentrate on the projected starting position players, the five man rotation, and the closer, using the CBSSports.com depth charts.

New York Yankees

• Position Player WAR: 33.9
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 15.1
• Closer WAR: 2.4
• Total WAR: 51.4

Once again, the Yankees start the season with a core that is perfectly capable of carrying them to the playoffs. Impressively, there is upside to these numbers. Both Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez produced a 4.2 WAR, considered off years for both. The corner infielders worked over the winter to improve, Mark trying to pull less, Alex visiting Europe for advanced medical treatment. Phil Hughes is healthy, so his 0.7 WAR from last season will likely get better. Derek Jeter played porly in the first half of 2011. Two good halves from the shortstop would improve his numbers. The calculation above doesn’t even include Michael Pineda, who starts the season on the disabled list.

There is also room for decline. CC Sabathia and Curtis Granderson are coming off MVP type seasons, and it’s natural to fall back a little from those. Mariano Rivera posted a 2.4 WAR in 2011. That’s impressive at any age. As Mo is over 40, it would be unlikely for him to reach that level again. A-Rod and Jeter are up there in age, and they could fall apart as easily as they could improve.

My guess is the fall offs and the improvements will even out, and barring injuries, the Yankees should make the playoffs easily. This is a club that is so strong, they can afford to carry a replacement level player at designated hitter, Raul Ibanez. If they find they need a better hitter in that slot, they have the resources to get one.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Position Player WAR: 28.8
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 12.9
• Closer WAR: 0.9
• Total WAR: 42.6

The Rays assembled another solid squad. The position player and starting pitcher WAR may very well be underestimates, as two short term rookies from 2011 figure to contribute greatly in 2012. Desmond Jennings managed a 2.4 WAR in 1/3 a season. It’s possible that goes up to six this season. Matt Moore came up at the end of 2011 as a reliever. He managed a 0.4 WAR, and showed in the playoffs what he could do as a starer. A four WAR is not out of the question for him. Each of those players adding four WAR to their 2011 number pushes the Rays core over 50.

One thing I love about this team is that they managed to acquire four great players and surround them with solid, complementary teammates. Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, James Shields, and David Price form the star core, and it seems everyone around them can do something well. The team catches the ball very well, so their pitchers don’t need to get four outs in an inning. That allows the starters to go deep, covering a weakness in the bullpen.

The Rays are very well positioned to compete for the playoffs, and if everything breaks right could even win the division.

Boston Red Sox

• Position Player WAR: 34.9
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 10.8
• Closer WAR: 0/9
• Total WAR: 46.6

The Red Sox figure to own the best offense in the division, barely beating out the Yankees. Boston’s offensive talent is concentrated, however, with Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, and Adrian Gonzalez combining for 24 of that 34.9 WAR. Compare that to the Yankees, where the top hitters aren’t quite as good, but only one player is close to replacement. Concentrating too many wins into a few players makes a team susceptible to injury.

The biggest room for upside comes in the starting rotation. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are solid starters, but behind them are three questions marks. Clay Buchholz returns from an injury riddled 2011. The Red Sox and their fans would love to see him return to the 3.8 WAR he posted in 2010. Two new pitchers enter the rotation as Daniel Bard makes the move from the bullpen, and Felix Doubront tries for a permanent spot on the big league roster. Both should be considered question marks.

There is some age on the team also. Kevin Youkilis suffered a falloff in 2011 due to injuries, his second year in a row being sidelined quite a bit. David Ortiz rebounded after three down seasons. He’ll play the season as a 36 year old, so a return to his levels of 2008-2010 is possible.

This is an excellent team that should compete for a playoff spot, but I’m not sure they have enough talent to win the division.

Toronto Blue Jays

• Position Player WAR: 22.1
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.6
• Closer WAR: 1.6
• Total WAR: 31.3

The Blue Jays are in the unfortunate position of being a good team on the rise, but faced with tough competition in both their division and league. The Blue Jays core is good enough to get them over .500. They employ one of the best hitters in the league in Jose Bautista. Brett Lawrie promises to give them two dangerous hitters in the middle of the lineup, and a full season from him should improve the position player WAR above. Adam Lind can’t be much worse than his 2010 season, and if he is, Toronto should be able to come with a first baseman who can hit.

There’s some upside to the pitching as well. Henderson Alvarez brings his superior control to the majors for a full season. He doesn’t strike out many, but walks so few he gets away with all the balls in play. It’s helped by his ability to induce ground balls. We will know Tuesday if Kyle Drabek made the rotation in place of the injured Dustin McGowen. Kyle was the prize in the Roy Halladay trade, and if he’s ready to pitch in the majors, the Blue Jays should get a big boost in his slot as well.

I can imagine the Blue Jays winning 90 games this season. Give the strength of the top teams in the league, however, 90 wins may not be enough for a wild card.

Baltimore Orioles

• Position Player WAR: 13.2
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 11.8
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 25.8

The Orioles are not a bad team. They’re not the Astros or the Mariners. The hold two excellent players in Matt Wieter and J.J. Hardy. The other position players that the new front office brought in this winter all do something well, they just tend to be one dimensional.

The starting staff looks totally revamped, with Jason Hammel acquired from the Cubs Rockies, and two pitchers imported from Nippon Professional Baseball. Wei-Yin Chen, who is Taiwanese, appears to have won the #1 spot in the rotation. He should feel at home in Baltimore, as his teams in Japan seemed to provide him with little run support. Tsuyoshi Wada takes the fifth spot. Given the track record of pitchers from Japan in the majors, they might be great, or they might wind up in AAA. I rated them one WAR each, so there’s plenty of upside there.

I doubt this team, even if everything breaks right, will finish above .500. There’s simply too much talent in the AL East, and Baltimore plays those teams 72 times.

Predictions:

I find myself facing a bit of a paradox. My expected number of wins for the Red Sox is higher than for the Rays, but it seems to me there’s more downside to that number than upside. My expected number of wins for the Rays is lower than for the Red Sox, but there is a lot more upside than downside to this team. Basically, I see the Rays with a higher chance of winning the division than the Red Sox, but a lower chance of making the playoffs. If everything goes right for the Rays, they’ll be very good. So I’m rating them ahead of the Red Sox below, even though I would expect boston to finish ahead of Tampa Bay.

Here’s how I see the odds of the teams winning the division:

1. New York Yankees 40%
2. Tampa Bay Rays 25%
3. Boston Red Sox 23%
4. Toronto Blue Jays 10%
5. Baltimore Orioles 2%

It should be a great three-team race.