Matt Kemp came back strong after his partial day off on Sunday, going three for three against the Giants as the Dodgers won big 9-1. The game was closer than the score, tied at one in the middle of the sixth, but the Giants bullpen allowed six of the nine runs. Ted Lilly continues to pitch well, allowing the one run in six innings, walking two and striking out six. Once again he kept the ball in the park and comes away from the game with a 1.41 ERA.

Kemp hit a double and drew a walk, raising his BA to .406. He’s now at his highest probability of hitting .400 this season, 0.00000161 (click graph for a larger version):

Matt Kemp probability of hitting .400 in 2012. X-Axis is Dodgers games played. Y-Axis is on a logarithmic scale.

Kemp did two things to help his probability Monday night. The 3 for 3 pushed his BA over .400. The walk reduced the expected number of at bats he’ll get this season. Kemp is now seen accumulating 564 at bats for the season. A few days ago, that number was 586. The fewer at bats, the more likely Kemp can hit the target. His odds are still a very long 1 in 620,000.