September 29, 2012

Triple Crown Watch

Miguel Cabrera solidified his RBI lead with a three run homer against the Twins as he went 1 for 4 in his quest to win the triple crown. Even better, the home run ties him with Josh Hamilton for the AL home run lead, putting Cabrera first in all three categories. Joe Mauer posted an 0 for 3, as he falls behind Mike Trout in the batting race. Trout and Hamilton were idle as rain washed out the game in Texas. They’ll play two on Sunday.

Cabrera has the following probabilities of at least tying in the three triple crown categories:

  • Batting Average (vs. Trout): .904
  • Home Runs: .626
  • RBI: .9997

If you multiply the three probabilities together, Cabrera has a .57 probability of winning the triple crown or 57%, up from 31% yesterday. Miguel pretty much has the batting and RBI races locked up. All he needs to do now is keep pace with Hamilton, and the 45 years of no triple crown winners will end.

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