The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (LAnaheim Angels). The Angels finished fourth in the majors and third in the National League in 2012 with 4.73 runs scored per game.
The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Mike Scioscia may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.34
- Probable lineup: 5.22
- Worst lineup: 4.96
- Regressed lineup: 4.76
Note that the worst possible lineup that Scioscia could pen bases on these projections is better than all but two team from 2012. The addition of Josh Hamilton gives the squad a lot more pop. Mike Trout is a year older and more mature, and Albert Pujols made his adjustments last April, so he may be in for a complete season similar to his May through September. For all his early struggles, Albert did lead the AL in extra base hits.
Mike Trout tries to improve on a superlative 2012. Here he triples on St. Patrick’s Day. Photo: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
As for Scioscia’s lineup construction, he nails Hamilton as the clean-up hitter. The LAT likes Albert Pujols batting second, however, with the high OBP, low-power Chris Iannetta third. In fact, most of the bad lineups from these nine players have Albert batting third, just where Scioscia placed him.
One of the things that fell out of this model is that the number three hitter, where the best all-around hitter often sits, is a less important slot. If there is a good OBP hitter in the ninth slot serving as a leadoff type hitter, than getting power and OBP in the second slot is more important. You’ll often see a not-great hitter third in these analyses.
Scioscia comes more than 2/3 of the way to the best lineup, however, and if it proves to have as much fire power as predicted, the Angels will likely lead the league in runs scored.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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